Here are the parameters for today’s newsletter:

We cannot present a trend for the game in question without 5 solid reasons for liking the prop. It was difficult with such a small slate of games, but we managed to get it done.

Here are the four games tonight:

All four games tonight have a spread under -8.0, which we always like to see. Closer games, more competitive games, always feel better to research.

We also have NHL cheat sheets from WallaBets at the bottom of the newsletter. Before we get into it, we’ll be dropping our usual NFL Sunday newsletter on Saturday this week, so we can ensure we’re touching on the two early Wild Card games.

Now, let’s get into it.

One by one, let’s go over the things to like about this trend:

This season, Knueppel is averaging 5.2 rebounds per game with a 58% hit rate.

This season, Knueppel is averaging 5.2 rebounds per game with a 65% hit rate at home.

Knueppel is averaging 5.1 rebounds with a fantastic 71% hit rate in back-to-backs.

The Pacers rank 29th in rebounds allowed to opposing shooting guards, a matchup that he’s taken advantage of this season.

Knueppel racked up 8 rebounds against them in November.

Brandon Miller missed the Hornets’ last game with a knee injury, so keep an eye on his injury status before this game. But so far this season, when Miller is out, Knueppel rocks the boards, with a 6.4 average and a 71% hit rate.

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One by one, let’s go over the things to like about this trend:

He’s averaging 13.9 points per game this season with a 54% hit rate. But in his L4 games, he’s averaging much more than that, with a 75% hit rate.

He’s averaging 17.5 points per game in his last 4 games.

At home, Allen is averaging just 12.2 points, with a 38% hit rate against this line. On the road, his numbers skyrocket compared to those home statistics.

He has a 69% hit rate against this line, averaging 15.6 points on the road.

Gobert will be the primary defender against Allen, and his history against Gobert is encouraging. Over his last 4 games, going toe-to-toe with Gobert, Allen has been over in all 4 games.

In those 4 games against Gobert, he has 8 or more field goals each time. In games this season with 8 or more field goal attempts, he has an 81% hit rate and an average of 17.1 points per game.

Yes, Miami and Washington centers have failed to hit this line against Minnesota, but centers before those two games dominated the Timberwolves in the points department.

One by one, let’s go over the things to like about this trend:

This season, Huerter is averaging 15.5 points and rebounds per game, with a 56% hit rate.

Huerter’s hit rate at home is the same as his season overall, 56%, but his average jumps to 16.7 points and rebounds per game when he’s playing in Chicago.

Be careful - Coby White could play. He’s only listed out with a day-to-day designation. But when White is out, Huerter is averaging 17 points and rebounds per game, with a hit rate that jumps to 74%.

Heurter averages 11.7 points this season, 12.5 at home, and 12.5 in back-to-backs. As for rebounds, he’s averaging 3.8, 4.2 at home and 4.2 in back-to-backs. The reason we’re highlighting this is that points will get him over this line, and rebounds will be the complementary piece. And good news for him: the Bulls rank 19th in points allowed to small forwards, with 64% of opposing small forwards clearing their line against the Heat in their last 10 games.

Our projection algorithm, Edge, likes Heurter to finish with 19.3 points and rebounds.

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One by one, let’s go over the things to like about this trend:

There isn’t a better matchup in the NBA - the Mavs allow the most rebounds in the NBA to opposing point guards.

At home this season, in games without Walker Kessler and Kevin Love, Collier has cleaned up on the glass, averaging 4.3 rebounds with a 75% hit rate.

Collier’s season average is 2.4 rebounds, with a 43% hit rate against this line. But at home, his hit rate jumps to 50% this season, with a 2.6 average. And then at home recently, he’s strung together a couple of strong games, averaging 3.75 rebounds per game over his last 4 home games.

Our projection algorithm, Edge, likes Collier to finish with 3.4 rebounds.

Collier has played 22 or more minutes in 8 of his last 10 games, and this season, when he plays 22 or more minutes at home this season, Collier averages 3.2 rebounds per game with a 64% hit rate.

So to recap:

Hopefully, let’s have a day!

Our regular Sunday newsletter will be coming to you Saturday morning, ahead of the first two wildcard games.