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The Art of the Revenge Game

It took the NBA community, collectively, two weeks to pick their jaws off the floor after the Luka Doncic trade. Once they did, everyone’s first question was: when does he play the Mavs? The answer - tonight! Everyone’s second question was, “When does he return to Dallas?”. We have to wait until April 9th for that.

Luka isn’t the only player playing his old team tonight, but he and Dallas’s Max Christie are the only two that really qualify as potential ‘revenge games’. Phoenix’s Grayson Allen and San Antonio’s Chris Paul, the two other players we’re going to highlight, haven’t played for their older teams in a long time (Allen played for Memphis in 2020-21, Paul played for New Orleans 14 seasons ago). They most certainly don’t fit as revenge games, that’s not what we’re saying, we’re just highlighting players who are playing one of their former teams tonight.

We dove into Props.Cash to find some betting insight for those four players, starting with Phoenix’s Grayson Allen.

Allen From Three!

Allen hasn’t been lacing it from three lately, going under his 2.5 3PTM line in 3 of his last 4 games.

But if we chip away at it, Allen’s three-line comes down to attempts. He averages 5.7 threes per game right now, and when Allen attempts 5 or fewer threes per game (21 games), he hits 1.2 on average, going over his 2.5 3PTM line in just 14% of those games.

When Allen attempts 6 to 14 threes (his season high), he hits 3 or more in 84% of his games, averaging 3.5 threes made.

Basically: when Allen attempts more than his season average, he has great numbers. When he attempts his season average or less, his numbers are really bad. He needs to attempt 6 or more tonight to have a shot.

His matchup with the Grizzlies is interesting - they allow the 3rd highest three-point percentage to shooting guards (33.43%), 3.28 made threes per game to shooting guards (13th), and 50% of shooting guards have covered their line against Memphis in their last 10 games.

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Chris Paul

Chris Paul last played for New Orleans in 2010-2011, so a revenge game isn’t what’s going on here. But we’re using his history as a former Pel as an excuse to point out how good his data is against his rebounds and assist line without Wemby in the lineup.

Paul’s rebound and assist line is 10.5 tonight, and he averages 12.3 R&A without Wemby, averaging 12.78. He also gets a great matchup against his former team, with the Pelicans allowing 15.78 combined rebounds and assists to point guards.

Paul just played the Pels on Sunday and finished with just 10 rebounds and assists, but he had 7 rebound chances and 13 potential assists, so the opportunities were there for him to get one more.

Max Christie

Christie has taken his game to another level since the trade, averaging 23.3 points, rebounds, and assists in the 7 games he’s played with the Mavs, compared to just 12.0 points rebounds, and assists during his time with the Lakers this season.

The Lakers allow 33.76 points, rebounds, and assists to shooting guards, 22nd in the NBA. Can he take advantage of a decent matchup against his old team, with all the fanfare and focus on Luka?

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Luka Doncic

Last but not least, the big one. After recovering from an injury, Luka will play just his fifth game as a Laker. He was quiet in three of his first four (failed to hit 20 points), but had his coming-out party as a Laker on Saturday, dropping 32 points and adding 10 rebounds and 7 assists.

This is how his former team matches up against point guards:

• They allow 24.97 points to PG’s this season, 23rd in the NBA

• They’ve allowed 22.53 points to PGs in their last 5 games, 9th in the NBA.

• They’ve allowed 28.25 points to PGs on the road this season, 29th in the NBA.

• And 36% of point guards have covered their line against the Mavs in their last 10 games, but that includes 20 points to Steph Curry on Sunday.

And then there’s Luka’s shot chart. He has scored 46% of his points from the paint or the restricted area since joining the Lakers, and 44% from three. The Mavs are the best team in the NBA defending the 3 ball this year, but are bottom 10 in defending the paint, and are bottom 3 in restricted zone defense.

What kind of game do you expect from Luka tonight?

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See you Thursday!