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It’s March 31st. We’re on the brink of both the Stanley Cup Playoffs & NBA Playoffs, we’ve just started the MLB season, the Masters are right around the corner, and far in the distance, we’re just 162 days away from week 1 of the NFL season.
In today's newsletter, we’re focused on the 7 games in the NBA tonight with three NBA trends, and we’ve sprinkled our new MLB tutorials into the newsletter as well. The NBA trends are focused on our DvP filter.
Let’s get into it.
NBA
PHX @ ORL: Collin Gillespie, 10.5 Points
Gillespie gets the Orlando Magic, fresh off an embarrassing loss to the Toronto Raptors, and still unable to defend point guards. The Magic rank 28th in points allowed to opposing point guards, with 62% of opposing PG’s clearing their line against Orlando in their last 10 games.
Good news for Gillespie: in games against teams that rank in the bottom 5 of points allowed to opposing PG’s, Gillespie is averaging 12.8 points with a 73% hit rate.
Even better news for Gillespie: in games against teams that rank in the bottom 5 of points allowed to opposing PG’s, while on the road, Gillespie is averaging 14.0 points with a 71% hit rate.
The cherry on top for Gillespie: in games against teams that rank in the bottom 5 of points allowed to opposing PGs, without Grayson Allen playing, Gillespie is averaging 15.8 points with a 71% hit rate.
Can Gillespie get 11 tonight?
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CLE @ LAL: LeBron James, 6.5 Assists
Here’s the recipe:
Take a dash of LeBron James’ recent games (Exhibit A).
Add in a pinch of his matchup (Exhibit B).
Sprinkle is data in back-to-backs this season (Exhibit C).
Result: some nice-looking data for this trend.
Exhibit A → He has 8 or more assists in four straight…
Exhibit B → The Cavs rank 27th in assists allowed to opposing power forwards.
Exhibit B Continued → LeBron’s data against teams ranks bottom 5 in assists allowed to opposing power forwards.
Exhibit C → LeBron’s data in back-to-backs this season.
C’mon, King, get 7 assists!
POR @ LAC: Bennedict Mathurin, 5.5 Rebounds
Bennedict Mathurin has 10 games this season against teams that rank in the bottom 5 of rebounding allowed to small forwards. 7 of those games came as a member of the Indiana Pacers, before his trade to the LA Clippers on February 5th. In the 3 games as a member of the Clippers with those parameters, and in those three games, he has 6 or more rebounds all three times, with 9 & 10 rebounds in two of the three.
Mathurin also has 6 or more rebounds in 4 of his last 6 games, with 4 rebounds in the other two games, and at least 7 rebound chances in all 6 games. This season, as a member of the Clippers, when he has 7 or more rebound chances, Mathurin is averaging 5.71 rebounds with a 71% hit rate across 7 games.
And in games with a healthy Clippers - that means games where Garland, Leonard, Lopez, Jones Jr, and Collins all play - Mathurin is averaging 5.8 rebounds with a 75% hit rate.
Our new MLB Batter Props tutorial:
Our new MLB Pitcher Props tutorial: