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Back-to-Back Data + Head-to-Head Similarities in the NBA Tonight…

Nicolas Claxton, Alexander Sarr, and Pascal Siakam all have strong data tonight. We began by focusing on players with back-to-back data that strongly favored either the over or the under. After identifying players in those categories, we examined their head-to-head data. We found that Claxton, Sarr, and Siakam each had strong numbers, with Claxton leaning toward the over and the other two leaning toward the under. Let’s highlight the over-leaning player first.

Nicolas Claxton, 10.5 Points + Assists

Claxton is averaging 12.3 points and assists per game this season, clearing this 10.5-line in 59% of his games this season, and has cleared this line in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 13.8 points and assists.

And then there’s his data in back-to-backs. Claxton, on zero rest, has been dynamite against this line this season. He’s averaged 12.1 points and assists, clearing this 10.5 P+A line in 88% of his back-to-backs this season.

Tonight, Claxton faces Cleveland, and in games against the Cavs with both Allen and Mobley in the lineup, Claxton has solid data. In three games this season against those two, Claxton has gone over this line in 2 of 3 games and averaged 12.0 points and assists in those games.

Claxton crosses off three solid markers tonight: recent play ✅, Claxton in back-to-backs ✅, and solid head-to-head numbers ✅.

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Alexander Sarr, 22.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Sarr’s data, in back-to-backs and his head-to-head data this season, is strong like Claxton’s. But it’s strength leans the other way. He’s been non-existent in back-to-backs this season and struggled against Detroit in November. Although he has been playing strong ball recently.

Sarr has crushed this line in three straight games, but those games were against Toronto and Utah - a far cry in competition from the Pistons. And like he said, Sarr has struggled in back-to-backs.

He’s averaged just 16.0 PRA in back-to-backs this season, never going over this 22.5 PRA line. In Sarr’s only game against the Pistons, Sarr played 24 minutes, had just 1 potential assist, 5 potential rebounds, and attempted only 7 shots. What did that translate into? Only 10 PRA.

Let’s also consider how recent centers have played against the Pistons, allowing 34.96 PRA to centers in their last 5 games, 8th best in the NBA. That number is significantly more than Sarr’s line, but it’s heavenly inflated by games by marquee centers (Jokic - 55 PRA, Zubac - 36 & 33 PRA). Centers that aren’t household names have had very different results than some of those marquee centers (Clingan - 15 PRA, Looney - 7 PRA, Post - 9 PRA, Claxton - 17 PRA).

Pascal Siakam, 28.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Before playing last night against Chicago, Pascal Siakam had racked up 74 points and rebounds in his last 2 games. He followed that up with just 11 (!) against the Bulls.

A lot of people would think, “bounce back spot!”. Possible, but his back-to-back numbers are scary. Aside from the first to back-to-backs this season, Siakam has been not-so-great with zero rest, going under this P+R line in 7 straight games.

Since joining Indiana from Toronto, Siakam has played Milwaukee 4 times at home. In all four of those games, he went under this 28.5 PRA line. In those 4 games, he’s averaged 25.25 PRA, including a 27 PRA performance back in December.

And then there are Milwaukee’s numbers against power forwards: they allow the 4th least points+rebounds in the league to the position.

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See you Thursday!