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Stars Struggling to Score
What is going on with Donovan Mitchell, Steph Curry, and Josh Hart...
Michael Mohorovich
March 25, 2025
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Stars Struggling to Score
Donovan Mitchell, Steph Curry, and Josh Hart are three star players who have seen a sharp decline in their points per game over their last 5.
Player | Season Average | L5 Average | Point Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
Josh Hart | 13.9 | 7.2 | -6.7 |
Steph Curry | 24.2 | 20.0 | -4.2 |
Donovan Mitchell | 23.7 | 28.0 | -5.7 |
We dove into Props.Cash to analyze their last 5 games, and look into their matchup to see if they’re in a good position to break out of their slump tonight (or Thursday).
Josh Hart, 13.5 Points
When Jalen Brunson sprained his ankle on March 6th, Josh Hart was one of a couple of players on the Knicks that was expected to step up in his absence. I mean, someone has to score for them, right? Although his 13.9 points per game is 5th on the team, their lack of depth was sure to mean that everyone was going to have to contribute more.
In the first two games after Brunson went down, Hart did contribute more, he scored 32 points (16 PPG). But in the 6 games that have followed those first two, he’s only scored 47 points total (7.8 PPG).
Hart without Brunson this season
The big change for Hart is that he’s not shooting nearly enough in this stretch, attempting 10 or fewer shots in 5 straight games. Hart averages 10 attempts per game this season, and his splits with 10 attempts or fewer versus 10 attempts or more are vastly different.
With 10 attempts or fewer, he’s averaging 10.5 points, and has cleared this 13.5 points line in just 19% of his games.
Hart with 10 or fewer shot attempts
And with 10 or more attempts, he’s averaging 17.3 points per game and has cleared this 13.5 points line in 83% of his games.
Hart with 10 or more shot attempts
The next question is: can he shoot more tonight? Hart plays the Dallas Mavericks, who allow 21.93 points per game to small forwards, but more importantly, they allow 17.16 field goal attempts to small forwards, 19th in the NBA.
When we look at Hart’s shooting chart, he’s scored 77% of his points from the restricted area and three-point line, and in their last 5 games, the Dallas Mavericks are 24th and 30th in defending those two areas of the court.
 Hart’s shooting chart this season |  Dallas’s defense, their last 5 games |
If he can shoot more, and in this matchup he should be able to, Hart has a chance of breaking out of his slump tonight.
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Steph Curry, 22.5 Points
Of the three players, Curry’s -4.2 point differential is the least, and it’s also the easiest to understand. In two of the 5 games, he’s played well, scoring 24 and 28 points. Its the other three games we need to look at, where he scored 20, 17, and 11.
Curry’s last 5 games
In the two games where he scored 17 and 11 points, it was his lack of attempts from three that brought down his point line. He averages 11 attempts from three per game, and in those two games, he attempted just 10 threes total. He’s only had 6 games this season with 6 or fewer three-point attempts, and in those games he’s averaged just 13.3 points. Both of these games in his last 5 fall under this average.
Curry with 6 or fewer attempts from three
And in that other game in his last 5, where he scored 20 points, it was his dismal shooting percentage that cursed Curry. He shot just 29% from the field and 29% from three.
Curry snapping out of his mini slump will come down to two things: can he shoot more tonight, and can he shoot better? His matchup tonight is against Miami, and good news for Curry, they allow the second-worst three-point percentage and second most three-point attempts per game to point guards, which opens the door for Steph. A door he’s opened before, scoring 31 points against Miami in January.
Curry head-to-head against Miami
Their overall field goal percentage and field goal attempts to point guards aren’t quite as good for Steoh, but they won’t put a stranglehold on him either. Miami ranks 20th in field goal percentage to opposing point guards (40.99%) and 13th in field goal attempts (19.49).
Donovan Mitchell, 23.5 Points
Mitchell is OUT tonight, but he’s only out for injury management, so his next game after Tuesday night (Thursday vs San Antonio) will be his next chance to break out of his slump. Still, we can dive into his data to see why he’s averaging nearly 6 points fewer per game than his season average.
Mitchell’s last 5 games
Mitchell’s reasoning for his lack of scoring is similar to Curry’s, and it comes down to two simple facts: he’s been dreadful from the field and three.
Shooting Category | Season Average | L5 Average | Difference Between Both |
|---|---|---|---|
Field Goal % | 44.0% | 31.2% | -12.8% |
3-Point % | 35.6% | 12.0% | -23.6% |
Those shooting percentage drops are shockingly bad, and on Thursday against San Antonio, he’ll be in a decent spot to turn the tide.
Shooting guards’ three-point data against San Antonio
The Spurs allow 3.4 threes per game to shooting guards, and 9.73 3-point attempts per game to shooting guards, 27th in the NBA. After a break tonight, and a chance to rest his injury and hit the ‘reset’ button, Mitchell gets a solid matchup on Thursday.