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Strong Bills, Weak Dolphins

The Bills and Dolphins are on very different sides of a very thick coin. There probably isn’t a team in football that’s as lost as the Miami Dolphins right now, and there probably isn’t a team feeling as good as the Buffalo Bills right now (Packers fans, we see you). And now two teams headed in different directions, clouded by the words of their fans echoing positively or negatively around them, face off on Thursday Night Football with a 12.5 point spread.

The game script should play out a bit like this:

• Allen and company run up the score

• Allen and company run the ball until the clock hits zero

• Tyreek Hill requests a trade

Is that how it’ll play out? Who knows. But the sentiment in the betting community seems to be that the Dolphins don’t stand a chance, Dalton Kincaid is going to go off, and the Bills are going to run the ball late. Let’s get into some trends powered by Props.Cash.

Bills’ Touchdowns in Blowouts

In the regular season last year, the Bills won 6 games by 20 or more points.

• Week 2, won by 21, favoured by -2.5, scored 4 touchdowns (vs Miami)

• Week 4, won by 37, favoured by -4.5, scored 6 touchdowns

• Week 7, won by 24, favoured by -10.0, scored 4 touchdowns

• Week 8, won by 21, favoured by -3.0, scored 4 touchdowns

• Week 13, won by 25, favoured by -6.5, scored 5 touchdowns

• Week 17, won by 26, favoured by -10.5, scored 4 touchdowns

In those 6 games, select players had incredible averages in terms of touchdowns.

• Allen has 13 passing touchdowns in the 6 games, an average of 2.16

• The team has 13 rushing touchdowns in the 6 games, also an average of 2.16

• James Cook had 9 of the 27 touchdowns they scored in those games, 1 passing touchdown, and 7 rushing touchdowns.

This is how the rest of their touchdowns from those games break down:

• Dalton Kincaid - 2 total, both passing

• Keon Coleman - 3 total, both passing

• Ray Davis - 3 total, both rushing

• Ty Johnson - 2 total, both passing

• Khalil Shakir - 1 total, passing

• Josh Allen - 2 total, both rushing

• Ja’Marcus Ingram - Defensive TD

• Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins had the other three; they’re both no longer with the Bills.

If this game turns out to be the blowout that is expected, the Bills best showed up in the end zone in these situations last year.

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NFL Best Bets on YouTube

We teased that a lot of the betting community is liking Dalton Kincaid ahead of the game tonight, including our key partner @KyleJustBets. Check out our NFL Best Bets video below for his Kincaid analysis.

TNF Partner Plays

There are a few well-thought-out, well-researched plays on X today that we wanted to ensure the newsletter community had the chance to see. Check them out below!

DBJ Betting - Keon Coleman, Receptions

Doyski - Alternative Look at Dalton Kincaid

EA Analytics - James Cook, Rushing Yards

Batter vs Pitcher Matchups, September 18th

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups - Sept 18th 🔥

⚾ Judge vs Povich: Averaging 4.1 HRR in L7 with 4+ HRR in 6 of them 🎯
⚾ De La Cruz vs Rea: .438 AVG in 17 PA’s 🔥
⚾ Contreras vs Kikuchi: 13 HRR in L3 games, 3+ HRR in 4 of L5 💥
⚾ Betts vs  Webb: Post-ASB hitting .308 vs .238 pre-ASB 📈

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See you Sunday!