Super Bowl 59: Chiefs or Eagles?

Is the Chiefs-Peat is inevitable? Sometimes it does feel like Patrick Mahomes and co. are just too good to lose. At the same time, Saquon Barkley feels like a man on a mission, and this Eagles team has depth in every position. So we ask you; who wins Super Bowl 59? If you respond in the poll, and your team wins, we’ll pick one person from the winning side to get a free month of Props.Cash!

We dove into Props.Cash to find anything that could help give you the Competitive Edge for today’s big game, and we landed on three talking points for this Chiefs/Eagles showdown:

• The route running and history of the top two receivers in the game, AJ Brown and Travis Kelce.

• Dallas Goedert, and the opportunity in front of him.

• Just like he has all season long, can Jalen Hurts use the ground to give the Eagles an edge?

The Top Guns: Brown & Kelce

AJ Brown and Travis Kelce are the top receiving threats on the Eagles and Chiefs, and when we dug into their route running for this season, we found some interesting data to bring to the newsletter community. First, let’s start with Brown.

AJ Brown and the Blitz

The Chiefs defense blitz on 31.6% of plays rate this season, 4th highest in the NFL. And there’s a correlation between opposing receivers when they blitz and AJ Brown’s route running tree during a blitz.

Brown runs 52% of his routes as either out routes or slant routes when Jalen Hurts is blitzed, and the Chiefs allow completion percentages of 79 and 81 against those two routes when they blitz. Brown’s receiving line is 69.5, a line he’s gone over in 56% of his games this season, averaging 74.9 yards. But this route-running blitz discovery holds a little more weight when you look at his reception line.

It’s set at 4.5, a line he’s gone over 69% of the time, averaging 4.8 receptions this season.

Travis Kelce, No Blitz

The Eagles are on the other side of the scale, blitzing just 19.1% of the time, 5th least in the NFL. And Mahomes’ favorite route for Kelce, when the opposing team doesn’t blitz, is the curl route. He’s racked up 134 yards running that route this season, while the Eagles have given up the most yards against that route when not blitzing.

This is going to have some effect on Kelce’s yards. His line is 61.5, a line he’s gone over in 50% of his games this season averaging 53.3 yards. But more importantly, he’s been over this in 5 of his last 6 playoff games, averaging 81.8 yards.

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Tight Ends Versus the Chiefs: Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert, run with this matchup. Opposing tight ends have gone over their receiving yard line at a 65% clip this season.

Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, Brock Bowers, Cade Otton, Brock Bowers (again), and George Kittle are just some of the tight ends in this photo that have gone over Dallas’s receiving yard line against Kansas City.

Over his last 5 games, Schultz is averaging 55.6 yards per game and 4.4 receptions and has added two touchdowns in that stretch.

Run Jalen, Run!

Similar to the success tight ends have had against Kansa City, duel-threat QBs have found success, too.

In the playoffs, all three quarterbacks to face Kansas City have run for at least 39 yards. Hurts rushing yards line is 36.5, a line he’s gone over in 56% of his games, averaging 41.8 yards per game.

And against the Chiefs, his data is solid. He’s gone over this number in 2 of three games, including the Super Bowl in 2023 where he racked up 70 yards on the ground.

It’s worth noting that in the playoffs Hurts has racked up games of 16, 70, and 36 yards thus far.

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Enjoy the Super Bowl and see you Tuesday!