The Atlanta Braves and Griffin Canning

Pitching data for Canning, Braves hitting data, and what it could mean tonight...

Author

Michael Mohorovich
June 26, 2025

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The Braves vs Canning

In his last three starts, Griffin Canning has given up 17 hits (5.6 hits per game) and 13 earned runs (4.3 ERA) - in the 12 games before that, his ERA was 1.60 and he was allowing 4.30 hits per game. He’s been leaky and has been getting hit hard, especially on his fastball.

That’s good news for a lineup that loves to mash. Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcell Ozuna, and Austin Riley are three names to watch, and we’ll break down why they might be set up to do damage.

Ronald Acuna Jr has a .427 average versus righties this season, and has 3 or more HRR in 13 of his last 15 games.

Acuna Jr’s HRR in his L20 games

But it’s the pitching data that we want to focus on. Canning has seen his barrel percentage against his fastball explode to 16% this season, an indicator of the potential for extra base hits and home runs. Acuna Jr has an incredible 24.4% barrel percentage against fastballs this season, and even a 13.8% against breaking balls.

Acuna Jr’s hitting data and Canning’s pitching data

Although the weather in New York isn’t great tonight for home runs but Acuna Jr has averaged 1 home run per 21 at-bats in his career when playing at Citi Field.

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Ozuna vs Canning

In 3 career at-bats versus Canning, Ozuna has 2 hits (a single, a HR) and a walk, managing to find base every time versus the righty - albeit in a small sample size. The pitching data is good, too. We’ve already highlighted Canning’s issues, leaking runs and hits in his last three starts, and seeing his barrel percentage climb on his fastball and breaking ball.

Although Ozuna has seen his average against breaking balls and off-speed pitches this season plummet, he’s still an elite fastball hitter, hitting .333 vs the pitch this season, and he still has a respectable 11.7 barrel percentage against fastballs.

Ozuna’s hitting data and Canning’s pitching data

In 3 PA’s vs Canning, Riley has managed a single and has a slightly better average vs righties (.277) than he does against lefties (.250.) In his last 10 games, he has 2+ HRR in 7 games, and 2+ HRR in 8 of his last 10 versus a righty starter.

Riley’s HRR in his L10 games vs a righty starter

And unlike Ozuna, Riley is an elite breaking ball hitter in terms of barrel percentage. Riley only has a .238 average vs the breaking ball, but his barrel% % is a whopping 16.7%.

Riley’s hitting data and Canning’s pitching data

Which of the three batters do you think can get to Canning tonight?

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