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The Oilers Are On Life Support, the Knicks Need OG & Jose Soriano
In today’s newsletter, we’re doing a deep dive on three props from each league. In the NBA playoffs, the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks game five is the most interesting on the docket, and that’s where we’ll deep dive, specifically with OG Anunoby’s PRA prop.
In Major League Baseball, the best pitcher in the league this season (so far) gets a very, very compelling matchup. The deep dive: Jose Soriano, strikeouts.
And in the NHL, unbelievably, the Edmonton Oilers are on the brink of elimination. Shockingly, the Anaheim Ducks have them against the wall, and so our deep dive will be on their #2 guy, Leon Draisaitl.
You’ll also find our NBA Most Researched Props of the night & MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchup sheet below.
NBA - OG & Most Researched
OG Anunoby, 25.5 PRA
In the absence of Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby has stepped up. Brunson isn’t here; he’s just not playing well. While Brunson is averaging 33.3 PRA (against a PRA line of 36.5) with a 50% hit rate in this first-round series. Meanwhile, OG is averaging 30.5 PRA in the series against a line of 25.5, with a 75% hit rate so far.
OG found his stride in the last two games, especially, and with OG clearing this line by 13 & 7, we have room for a lesser game and still an opportunity to go over. But what chanted between the first two games and the most recent two games? Simple:
Potential Assists by game: 0/2/2/1…nope, wasn’t this.
Potential Rebounds by game: 18/13/16/14…nope, wasn’t this.
Field Goal Attempts by game: 9/9/16/18…BINGO!
Field goal attempts are the key here, and if we look at his splits this season, depending on his attempts, the picture becomes clearer (he averaged 12.1 FGA’s, fyi).
When he attempts 8 or fewer: 12 games, 13.1 PRA average, 0% hit rate
When he attempts 9-11: 23 games, 21.0 PRA average, 26% hit rate
When he attempts 12-15: 18 games, 28.2 PRA average, 61% hit rate
When he attempts 16 or more: 19 games, 33.2 PRA average, 85% hit rate
Our NBA Most Researched Props For April 28
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MLB - Soriano & Batter vs Pitcher
Jose Soriano, 5.5 Strikeouts
Here are some quick hits for Soriano, with a focus on his track record this season and his matchup against the Chicago White Sox.
Soriano is averaging 7.2 K’s per game this season, clearing this 5.5 strikeout line in 67% of his games (4/6) and in 2 of 3 road games (67%)
The White Sox rank 5th in K rate vs right-handed pitchers this season, with a collective strikeout rate of 23.5% against righties.
50% of opposing starting right-handers have gone over their K line against the White Sox in their last 10 games. And 2 of the last 3 pitchers with K rates of 5.5 or more have gone over this line.
Batter vs Pitcher Matchups
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King Leon
No Connor, no problem? With his status up in the air in a do-or-die game (although it’s hard to believe he won’t find a way to play), the Oilers will need Leon more than ever.
Leon Draisaitl Without McDavid
We have to go back to last season to find games without Connor McDavid for Leon Draisaitl, but when we look back, we like what we find:
8 goals in his last 10 without McDavid, goals in 6 of those 10 games
Averaging 2.9 shots on goal in those 10 games, with only a 20% hit rate against his shots on goal line tonight in those 10 games.
A point in all 10 games in his last 10 without McDavid, and 14 points in those 10 games.
And last but definitely not least, he has 2+ points in 3 of his last 4 home games without McDavid.
He’s also been dynamite in the series, even with the Oilers struggles.
He has 7 points in the first four games, with 2+ points in 3 of 4 games and 4 points in the first two home games of the series.