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A Home Run Per 9 Of 4.22?!

Usually, when we do newsletters that focus on home run analyses, we’ll focus on three to five pitchers playing in vulnerable ballparks and break down the best matchup (on paper) for a home run argument that day.

And in our research for today, we found one pitcher who had a home run per nine innings (in one particular split) so high that it made us focus the entire newsletter on just him. If you look at the pitchers starting today, you may think it’s Erick Fedde, who will make his Braves debut after a brutal season for St. Louis. Not even Fedde has an HR per 9 in this particular split as high as 4.22 - Fedde’s is only 2.50.

You may also think it’s Sandy Alcantara, who has an ERA of 6.66. But his HR per 9 in this particular split is only 1.29.

The pitcher in question has a HR per 9 of 4.22, not overall, but at home versus left-handed hitters! That pitcher is Baltimore Orioles game two starter Brandon Young. Young has given up 6 home runs in his last three starts, including 4 home runs in his last home start.

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Brandon Young Versus Lefties

In the afternoon game today, the Orioles smoked the Blue Jays 16-4; they beat them yesterday 11-4, and after today’s game promptly sent them a relief pitcher.

And then in the second half of the double header, they roll out Brandon Young, who’s just been brutal in his last three starts. But Young has struggled to lefties at home, particularly. He has faced lefty batters 52 times this season, and Young has given up 5 home runs to that handiness at Camden Yards, playing his way to that 4.22 home runs per 9 vs lefties at home.

There is one lefty on the Blue Jays that stands out amongst the rest for this matchup: Addison Barger.

Addison Barger vs Brandon Young

The first bright light here: Barger homered today. In the top of the 4th inning of the afternoon game, Barger took Charlie Morton deep with a 2-run, 428-foot bomb to center field. That ended an 8-game skid for Barger, who has hit home runs in back-to-back games four times this season, and let’s hope he makes it five tonight.

Young has given up 4 home runs and a 12.9 barrel percentage with his offspeed pitcher, a pitch that has a 26.8 pitch share rate, and Barger has 6 of his 14 home runs to offspeed pitches this season, with a 17.1 barrel percentage against offspeeds.

And then there’s the weather in Baltimore. It’s hot, and we mean really hot. It’s over 100 degrees at Camden Yards, with virtually no wind. If Barger connects, the ball will fly in that heat. Let’s hope he connects.

Batter vs Pitcher Matchups, July 29th

⚾ Ronald Acuña Jr: 6 HRR, .600 AVG in 7 PA’s vs Lugo💥
⚾ Jonah Heim: 2+ HRR in 5 straight games 🔥
⚾ Manny Machado: .600 AVG & 24 HRR in L6 🤯
⚾ Luis Arraez: 11 HRR in L2 (!!), 18 HRR in L5 💣

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See you Thursday!