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Breaking Out Of A Cold Spell For Donovan Mitchell

In the newsletter, lately, we’ve focused on hot players staying hot, and trying our best to find trends that amplify that. Today, we shift our focus to the opposite end of the spectrum - a star player, who has averaged 22.8 points per game this season, suddenly averaging just 16 points per game, all the while his team keeps winning.

The Last 4 Games

In a bizarre shift, Mitchell has gone cold. Or has he? Is there an underlying factor here influencing Mitchell’s numbers? We wanted to use today’s newsletter a bit differently, and investigate why his average has dropped off a cliff while exploring the question: can he break out of it tonight?

Before we do, we’re not hitting the panic button here on Mitchell’s season or the Cavs’ season. We’re just having a bit of fun with the data, and amplifying just how detailed your research can be on Props.Cash.

Donovan And The Quest For 24

Donovan Mitchell has averaged 16 points per game over his last 4, a fry cry from his 22.8 average this season. And an ever further cry from his 23.5-point line tonight, a line he’s gone over in 42% of his games this season and 50% of his away games (compared to 38% at home).

Why the drop-off? Of course, there can be several factors leading to this. Opposing team defense is a big one, but the Cavs have only played one defensive stronghold over their last 4 games.

• January 3rd, Dallas - 111.8 PPG allowed (11th)

• January 5th: Charlotte - 112.4 PPG allowed (15th)

• January 8th, Oklahoma City - 103.2 PPG allowed (1st)

• January 12th, Indiana - 114.9 PPG allowed (21st)

In three of those 4 games, he played teams outside the top ten in total team defense. And we aren’t missing the Raptors game here, Mitchell didn’t dress for that one.

What about blowouts? Did Mitchell not play enough down the stretch to score points late in games? He’s averaged 31.4 minutes per game this season, let’s see how that racks up versus these 4 games.

• January 3rd, Dallas - Cavs win 134-122, Mitchell played 26.7 minutes and scored just 15 points.

• January 5th: Charlotte - Cavs win 115-105, Mitchell played 29.3 minutes and scored 19 points.

• January 8th, Oklahoma City - 103.2 PPG allowed (1st) - Cavs win 129-122, Mitchell played 35.2 minutes and scored just 11 points.

• January 12th, Indiana - 114.9 PPG allowed (21st) - Cavs lose 108-93, Mitchell played 30.8 minutes and scored 19 points.

So in those 4 games, he averaged 30.5 minutes per game, a minute less than his season average. Minutes, and team defenses, are likely not major contributing factors to Mitchell’s slump. So what is?

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Investigating on Props.Cash, we found two contributing factors:

1. His 3-point shooting percentage

Over this 4 game mini-slump, he’s shooting 36% from three, compared to 40.6% this season. A 4% drop-off is steep for a player of Mitchell’s pedigree.

The better way to quantify it is this; he’s averaged 3.8 threes made per game this season, and over his last 5 games he’s averaged just 2.25. He’s leaving just under 6 points on the court with his three-point shooting over his last 4 games, and that would take his average from 16 to 22. A big jump.

The other factor is the big one.

2. He’s not shooting as much over his last 4 games.

Compared to his season average, he’s just not shooting enough to put up big numbers. He’s put up 60 shots over his last 4 games, averaging 15 a contest. His season average is 17.9! 2.9 shots may not seem like a huge drop-off, but it is. To put his lack-of-shooting numbers in context, we put this chart together below.

I know what you’re thinking, “Duh, if he shoots more he’s going to score more” - but that’s not the point we’re trying to make! The point is that he isn’t shooting enough, at all, over his last 4 games. He’s only attempted 16 or less 16 times this season and three of those games were in his last 4. It’s uncharacteristic.

So the next question is simple: will he shoot more tonight? We can’t know for sure (we aren’t Donovan Mitchell, and we don’t know Donovan Mitchell, so we can’t ask Donovan Mitchell), but we can look at who he’s playing and try and figure it out.

Spida vs the Pacers

This is a back-to-back for Cleveland and Indiana, so we have recent data to look at. They held him to 17 attempts the other night, and have held shooting guards 1o an average of 17.71 this season. And head-to-head, Mitchell has averaged 22.7 attempts over his last 9 versus the Pacers.

And those attempt averages have translated to some pretty nice showings vs the Pacers.

But we’re hoping the biggest contributing factor for Mitchell tonight isn’t his opponent, but more where he’s playing his opponent. Tonight’s game is in Indiana, and for whatever reason, at home, he averages 17.1 field goal attempts per game. On the road that number jumps to 18.9!

Look at the chart above ⬆️ When Mitchell attempts 18 to 21 shots, he averages 25.5 points. And when it’s 17 or less, like it was the other night vs Indiana, he scores under 19 points a game.

If he shoots more, you can expect a slump-breaking game vs the Pacers tonight.

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See you Thursday!