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Today’s Newsletter, May 13th

Cleveland is on the brink of elimination, needing a win to avoid a stunning second-round exit in just five games at the hands of the Pacers. They’ll need a big night from Donovan Mitchell to keep their season alive. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has had back-to-back quiet performances on the road—but as the series returns to Oklahoma City, one key data point suggests a bounce-back could be coming.

In the NHL, the Jets haven’t won a playoff road game since Game 1 against Vegas in 2023—losing eight straight away from home. Can they finally snap the streak and even the series? If so, it might come down to one player rising to the moment.

And as always, we’ve got our daily MLB head-to-head sheet at the bottom.

Let’s dive in.

NBA

The Cavs, and Donovan Mitchell

Cleveland lost Game 4 in the first half—down 80–39 at the break, and while they cut the final margin to 20, the damage was already done. Now, Mitchell and the Cavs are one loss away from a second-round exit in spectacularly bad fashion. But there’s a glimmer of hope: in the two elimination games he’s played as a Cavalier, Donovan Mitchell has delivered—he’s shown up when it matters most.

• April 26th, 2023 vs the NYK: played 44 minutes, went 28/7/5, 11/26 FG, 3/12 3PT

• May 5th, 2024 vs Orlando: played 45 minutes, went 39/9/5, 11/27 FGA, 2/8 3PT

So far in the series, Mitchell is averaging 34/5/4.5, but because of an ankle injury suffered while warming up for the second half of game 4, he only played 20 minutes. In the other three, he averaged 35.6 minutes per game. In the three games where he played 33+ minutes, he averaged 41/6/6.

Although Mitchell left with that ankle injury, he was at shootaround this morning, moving pretty well:

He’s listed as questionable, but he’s likely to play, and if he plays, we’ll hopefully see him return to some of the big minutes he played in games 1, 2, and 3.

Mitchell, 27.5 Points

When Mitchell plays 36+ this season, he’s averaging 29.8 points per game.

In those games, he’s averaging 23 field goal attempts. This season, attempting 23 or more shots, he’s averaging 33.6 points per game.

Minutes are the key for Mitchell, tonight.

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SGA, Averages

In the first two games of the series at home, SGA scored 33 & 34 points, averaging 19.5 field goal attempts and a 65.5 field goal percentage. And then the series shifted to Denver, where SGA scored 18 & 25 points, averaging 20.5 field goal attempts, and a 37% field goal percentage.

Let’s assume we see a bit of a leveling off for SGA, where his attempts stay around 20, and his field goal percentage comes in a little closer to his season average (51.6%) but he still gets that home-court boost. This season, when his field goal percentage is between 52 and 56, SGA is averaging 34.6 points.

Stanley Cup Playoffs

The Jets Need Schiefele

Schiefele had two points in the first two games of the series, a goal and an assist, and contributed 10 shots on goal. In game three in Dallas, Schiefele had zero points with zero shots on goal, with just one shot attempt. In his two games in the first round on the road, Schiefele had just 3 shot attempts with 2 shots on goal and zero points. He needs to find a way to get more involved on the road - and he’s done it this season outside of the playoffs.

He averaged 3.6 shot attempts, 2.1 shots on goal, 0.9 points, and had a goal in 12 of 44 road games this season. This season on the road, the Jets won 26 games, and Schiefele had a point in 21 of those wins.

MLB Head-to-Head Daily Sheet

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See you Thursday!