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Three of the Top Five

Last week, a few of us at Props.Cash hit a small anytime touchdown parlay. Naturally, we used Props.Cash to find the four picks that delivered us the win. And it got me thinking: each week, what are our model’s top touchdown picks, and what data does the model consider in choosing those players? We selected three of the top five picks to dig into ahead of today’s slate.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, and Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III.

Ja’Marr Chase

Our research identified three things the model could have seen that made it like Chase to find the end zone against Philadelphia today.

Wide Receivers Versus the Eagles

Although the Eagles have gone back-to-back games without giving up a passing touchdown, in those two games they faced the New York Giants and Cleveland Brown, two teams that rank in the bottom 5 for touchdown passes per game this season. In the other 4 games they played this year, they allowed 8 touchdown passes, 4. of which were to number-one receivers.

Chase Hit Rates

Ja’Marr has touchdowns in 4 of 7 games this season, but 6 total touchdowns and all 6 of his TDs came in the last 5 weeks after he was held out of the endzone in the first two weeks of the season.

Eagles Points Per Game Allowed

The Eagles points per game allowed through the first four weeks: 24

The Eagles points per game allowed through the first 6 weeks (including those two games against the lackluster Browns and Giants): 19.16

Some people would suggest that the drop was because their defense has played better, but we need to remember that the Browns have a bottom-five red zone offense this season, and the Giants have a bottom-three red zone offense over their last 3 weeks. The Eagles D has not been good against teams that can move the ball, and we’re sure the projection model is accounting for this.

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Jonathan Taylor

An ankle injury caused Taylor to miss a couple of games this season, but when he’s played he’s averaging 1 touchdown per game this season, and the model likes him to do it again today against Houston. But why?

Recent History Against Houston

Jonathan Taylor has cooked the Houston Texans in recent games. In his last 5 against the Texans, Taylor is averaging 137 (!) yards per game, and has 7 touchdowns in that stretch. In week one this season he was held to 48 yards, but still managed to find the endzone.

Marquee Running Backs Versus the Texans

4 of 7 starting running backs that have faced Houston this year have found the endzone. The ones that didn’t were either not-so-surprising or their backup found the endzone instead.

• DeAndre Swift in week two, his backup Khalil Herbert scored.

• Tank Bigsby, who faced Houston in week 4, didn’t find the end zone until week 5. And he only had 7 carries.

• Antonio Gibson in week 6: only had 19 yards on 13 carries.

Taylor (week one), Aaron Jones (week three), James Cook (week five), and Josh Jacobs (week seven) have all found the end zone.

Taylor’s Usage

Before he got hurt, Taylor’s usage was on the climb.

He only had 28 total carries in the first two weeks, but racked up 22 carries in the two weeks that followed before going down. He’s fully healthy and ready to roll this week, and the model knows it.

Kenneth Walker III

The top passing offense in the NFL welcomes Bills Mafia today, and although Buffalo hasn’t given up a ton of rushing TDs, we can see what the model sees.

Walker, the Touchdown Machine

5 games. 7 touchdowns. Two multi-touchdown games.

6 of Walkers’ 7 touchdowns have come on the ground, which ties him for 3rd with Washington’s Brian Robinson Jr. and Detroit’s David Montgomery. If they get in the red zone, Walker is sure to get a few looks at the end zone. And based on our research, the model probably assumes that the Seahawks will be able to move their way into the red zone against this Bills offense.

Seattle’e Potent Air Attack

The Seahawks have the most passing yards this season, and although the Bills only allow 209 passing yards per game (17th in the league), they’ve only faced one offense quite like Seattle and that was Baltimore in week 4.

• 1: Seattle, 1896 yards (upcoming, week 8)

• 3: Baltimore, 1754 yards (week 4)

• 8: Houston, 1593 yards (week 5)

• 9: New York Jets, 1572 (week 6)

• 18: Jacksonville Jaguars, 1411 (week 3)

• 22: Arizona Cardinals, 1267 (week 1)

• 30: Miami Dolphins, 1077 (week 2)

• 32: Tennesse Titans, 875 (week 7)

In that Baltimore game, the Bills held Lamar Jackson to 156 yards, but Baltimore got 199 yards from Henry so Lamar only attempted 18 passes. Seattle should manage red zone appearances with or without the air attack. The air attack will open the run game, or vice versa against this defense.

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Good luck with your week 8 bets!