NBA Cup Wrapping Up

NBA Cup Group Play wraps up tonight, and the NBA has put out great updates to summarize exactly what is on the line tonight:

East scenarios:

West scenarios:

Now that you know what’s on the line, here are five thoughts powered by Props.Cash for tonight’s big night…

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Washington vs Cleveland: Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley

No team in the NBA defends the rim worse than the Washington Wizards; they give up the most points to centers (29.54), the most points in the paint (18.55) and the 9th most 2nd chance points to centers (5.0). How have Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen shaped up this season?

Allen is averaging 14.2 points, and his points line is 14.5. This is how Allen splits against that line:

• Hitting 14.5 points 52% of the time this season, averaging 14.2.

• Hitting 14.5 points 58% of the time this season at home, averaging 14.9.

• Averages 18.3 against Washington in his career.

• Over this number in 3 of his last 5 games, averaging 14.

Mobley is averaging 17.7 points, and his points line is 17.5. This is how Mobley splits against that line:

• Hitting 17.5 points 40% of the time this season, averaging 17.7.

• Hitting 17.5 points 44% of the time this season, averaging 17.7.

• Averages 16.2 against Washington in his career.

• Over this number in just 2 of his last 5, averaging 15.6.

Orlando vs New York: Franz Wagner

The New York Knicks are the worst team in defending small forwards when it comes to points (26.63) and rebounds (9.33), so Franz Wagner is the one to watch here.

Franz Wagner is averaging 23.4 points per game this season, and 5.7 rebounds. As a combo, he’s averaging 29.1 points and rebounds per game this season, but how does that shape up against his combo points and rebound betting line, which is set at 31.5 today?

• He’s hit at least 32 P+R in 45% of his games this season, averaging 29.1.

• He’s hit 32 P+R in 31% of his games on the road, averaging 27.8.

• Wagner has hit 31 P+R in 6 of his last 10 games overall, averaging 32.5

Utah vs Oklahoma City: Isaiah Hartenstein

Isaiah Hartenstein has only played 5 games this season for OKC, and he’s made his presence felt in all 5. He’s averaged 29 points and rebounds, and given the Thunder a real presence down low.

And his matchup tonight against Utah is a good spot for the big man. This is how the Jazz rank against centers:

• 29th in points against, averaging 27.1

• 22nd in rebounds allowed, averaging 15.6 against

• 28th in points in the paint, averaging 16.92 against

• 30th in second-chance points, averaging 5.66 against

Memphis vs Dallas: Jaren Jackson Jr

Jaren Jackson Jr is averaging 23.6 points and assists this season, and an even better 35.8 points and assists on the road. These are his splits against his betting line of 20.5 points and assists:

• Eclipsed this line in 68% of his games this season.

• Eclipsed this line in 83% of his road games this season.

• Eclipsed this line in 88% of his games when he’s played 29 or more minutes (he’s averaged 29 in his last 5 games)

And why, in a game featuring Kyrie, Luka, and Ja, are we emphasizing Jaren Jackson? Because the Mavs can’t defend centers.

Houston vs Sacramento: Sabonis Owns Sengun

Alepren Sengun has been a great story in the NBA over the last two seasons, but this chapter of his story has been a dark one. In their 7 career matchups, Sengun has yet to find a way to beat Domantis Sabonis.

This is what Sengun has averaged over the last three seasons:

• 2022-23: 14.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 55% FG

• 2023-24: 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 53.7% FG

• 2024-25: 18.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 47.2% FG

And this is what Sengun has averaged in his head-to-head matchups vs Sabonis:

• Career: 14.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 55% FG

The issue for Sengun against Sabonis isn’t hitting shots, it’s putting up enough shots to go over his line. Sabonis forces Sengun to dump it out to the perimeter, as you can see from his high assist numbers all-time vs the Kings center. Who will win the battle tonight?

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See you Thursday!