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Points, Rebounds, Assists: Embiid, Lopez, and Barrett

We decided to use the first night of the NBA Cup to dive into our projection model’s top pick and help you understand some of the data it took into account to make its projection.

Joel Embiid is projected to go over his points line tonight by 7.11 points.

Brook Lopez is projected to go over his rebound line by 1.56 rebounds.

RJ Barrett is projected to go over his assists line by 1.76 assists.

Joel Embiid Points

Embiid makes his season debut, and he’s definitely under a minutes restriction, but he’s still projected to play between 25 and 30 minutes Tuesday night. Last season, when he played between 25 and 30 minutes, Embiid averaged 30.7 points per game and went over his points line tonight (24.5) in 4 of 6 games.

And the Knicks have struggled to contain marquee centers recently; Myles Turner scored 26 on Sunday, and Alperen Sengun scored 25 on November 5th. Karl Anthony Towns is the rim protector for New York, and in his last 4 games, Embiid has destroyed this line head-to-head with KAT.

Let’s recap what the projection model saw here:

Solid history even with a minute restriction ✅

A good matchup with the Knicks ✅

Head-to-head history with the Knicks’ primary rim defender ✅

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Brook Lopez Rebounds

Joel Embiid is also the favorite rebounder by the projection model, so we went to the second player on the list; Milwaukee Bucks center Brook Lopez versus the Toronto Raptors. His line is 4.5, and he’s projected to have 6.06. The first thing we saw was his matchup.

The Raptors are a top-12 team in rebounding overall, but a bottom-7 team in rebounding against centers. 8 of the last 10 centers to face Toronto have gone over this line.

Lopez is averaging 4.6 rebounds per game this season, with a hit rate against this line of 50%. Lopez should get the chance to grab some boards against Toronto, too. He’s averaging 9.9 rebound chances per game this season.

Let’s recap what the projection model saw here:

Lopez gets Toronto, 23rd in rebounding versus centers ✅

He’s averaging more rebounds per game than his current betting line ✅

The chances have been there for Lopez, averaging nearly 10 potential rebounds ✅

RJ Barrett Assists

RJ Barrett is the projection model’s favorite assist player tonight, and it’s easy to see why. The Bucks are averaging 113.31 points per game, and allow 26.51 assists per game, both bottom 10 in the NBA.

Barrett has gone over this line 50% of the time this season, averaging 6.1 assists and 10.6 potential assists per game. Derrick White, Collin Sexton, Ayo Dosunmu, and Coby White have gone over this versus Milwaukee, and they’re giving up 5.07 assists per game to shooting guards, which opens the door for Barrett to go over this number.

Let’s recap what the projection model saw here:

The Bucks defense is bottom 10 ✅

Barrett is averaging more assists than his betting line tonight ✅

The Bucks give up more assists to shooting guards than Barrett’s line tonight ✅

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