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Three Things From the Season Series That Could Shape Game One Tonight
There are three and a half hours until the NBA Finals kick off. For Spurs fans, tonight marks the end of a 4372-day wait between NBA Finals appearances, and for Knicks fans, tonight marks the end of a 9840-day wait.
We took a look at their season series, and have three thoughts from those two games that could shape your thinking for prop research ahead of game one tonight.
Before we get into it, check out the most researched props on Props.Cash for game one tonight:
You’ll also find our newest MLB Tutorial down below, with a focus on researching strikeout, hits+runs+RBIs and home runs.
Now, into game one.
Three Thoughts On Game One
Based on what we saw in their two regular-season games, what can we watch for in game one?
Mikal Bridges, 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Bridges went over this line in both games against San Antonio, and there are two underlying data points to point out.
Bridges had at least 14 combined potential rebounds + assists in both games against the Spurs this season.
Bridges had 9+ field goal attempts in both games against the Spurs this season.
And now let’s summarize that into one stat:
In his 29 games this season with 14 or more potential rebounds & assists, plus 9 or more field goal attempts, Bridges averaged 27.3 PRA with a 93% hit rate against this line.
What can we expect from Bridges tonight?
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Victor Wembanyama, 11.5 Rebounds
In the two games against the New York Knicks this year, Wemby had 13 rebounds each game, but more importantly, his rebound chances jump off the page.
Wemby had 17 and 18 rebound chances in the two games, right on his average of 17.1 rebound chances in all games this season. If Wemby replicates his rebound chances against Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks down low, what can we expect from him?
In 48 games this season with 17 or more rebound chances, Wemby has averaged 13.4 rebounds per game with a 75% hit rate. In the 25 games at home with 17 or more rebound chances that average holds at 13.4 with a 76% hit rate.
Jalen Brunson, 2.5 3PTM
Brunson averaged 7.0 three-point attempts per game this season, and in one of the two games against San Antonio, he stuck to his regular-season script. But in the other, he went crazy from three.
On December 31st, he attempted 12 threes, hitting 5.
On March 1st, he attempted 7 threes, hitting 4.
But is that volume actually viable for Brunson? Unlikely. In the regular season, he averaged 7.2 3PTA. In the playoffs, he’s averaged 6.3. He hasn’t had 11 or more attempts from three in any playoff game, and only 8 or more three times.
With his 3PTM line at 2.5 tonight, his splits with 7 or fewer (where he’s been trending these playoffs) versus 8+ need to be noted:
7 or fewer 3PTA per game, all situations: 56 games, 1.8 average, 54% hit rate
8 or more 3PTA per game, all situations: 33 games, 3.9 average, 85% hit rate
If Brunson’s playoff volume continues, a road to 3 threes seems tough.
Check out our latest MLB tutorial here: