The NBA Finals Shift to Indiana

Using home and away splits to find a competitive edge in the prop market

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Game 3 of the NBA Finals, Home & Away

With the series tied 1–1, things move to Indiana Wednesday night. That means a change in setting, crowd, and potentially… player performance.

We’re focusing on the top three players from each team and how they’ve performed against their points lines so far. After that, we’ll dig into their home vs. away splits, which show some clear trends worth watching.

Then we’ll spotlight two players who have seen pretty significant changes in their playoff performances this year on the road and at home. Scroll down to see the chart with those splits.

The top three scorers for the Indiana Pacers in the playoffs are Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner. For OKC, it’s Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. And some of them have some pretty drastic swings at home and on the road.

Player

Points Line for Game 3

Home PPG & Hit Rate

Road PPG & Hit Rate

Tyrese Haliburton

17.5

18.1, 63%

18.7, 40%

Pascal Siakam

19.5

22.0, 63%

19.5, 30%

Myles Turner

13.5

16.6, 75%

14.1, 60%

SGA

33.5

31.8, 55%

28.3, 29%

Jalen Williams

20.5

19.9, 27%

20.6, 57%

Chet Holmgren

14.5

15.7, 64%

15.9, 57%

As you can see, the Pacers’ top two players have been much more effective at home in the playoffs, and teams have found a way to limit SGA on the road.

Siakam has racked up 19 & 15 points in the first two games of the series, shooting just 10 for 26 from the floor (38%), but considering he’s averaging 2.5 points per game more on home court in the playoffs than he has on the road, game 3 could be the game we see Siakam start to find his stride.

Siakam at home in the playoffs

Not only has Siakam cleared this 19.5-point line in 63% of his home games (compared to 30% on the road), but he’s also had 24+ points in 4 of 8 home playoff games, and only had 24+ twice on the road.

Siakam on the road in the playoffs

Siakam also has that one game against the Knicks on the road, where he dropped 39 points. If you don’t include that outlier game in his road averages, his point average drops to 17.3 on the road, with a 22% hit rate.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 33.5 Points

SGA has seen a 3.5-point drop between his home and road games, and although he’s racked up 72 points in the first two games (38, 34), this 33.5-point line has been a struggle for him on the road in the postseason, clearing it just twice in 7 tries.

SGA on the road in the playoffs

Shooting volume has been the key for SGA in the playoffs, and it’ll remain the key for game 3. He’s averaged 22 shot attempts but has pretty drastic swings in PPG when he has 19+ field goal attempts. With 19+ FGA, he’s cleared this 33.5-point line 50% this playoffs, averaging 32.4 points.

SGA these playoffs when he attempts 19 or more shots

And when he has 18 or fewer he’s cleared this line in just 1 of 4 games, averaging only 23.8 points per game. On the road in these playoffs, he’s averaged 21.4 field goal attempts and had 22 or fewer 4 times.

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MLB Head-to-Head Data Sheet

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups for June 10th 🔥

⚾️ Will Benson: .500 vs Cecconi (9 PA — 1 1B, 2 HR, 2B). .286 vs RHP in ‘24. LHB hitting .353 vs Cecconi. 💥
⚾️ Brendan Donovan: .370 vs RHP, .327 LHB vs Bassitt. Hit in 5 straight with 3 games of 2+ HRR. 🚀
⚾️ Nolan Schanuel: 2+ HRR in 5 of L6, 18 HRR total! .364 vs Spence (.395 allowed to LHB). 🔥
⚾️ Freddie Freeman: .394 vs RHP. .455 vs Cease (11 PA — 4 1B, 2B). 6 HRR to start series Monday. 💪

MLB head-to-head data sheer for June 10th

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See you Thursday!