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Narrative First, Data Second

There are 30 games between the NBA, MLB, and NHL tonight. Although most of those games don’t have a pregame storyline or something that makes them stand out amongst the rest, there are those games that jump out at us because they have a little extra meaning.

In the NBA, it’s the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies. They’re just one game apart in the standings, and a Golden State win could leapfrog them into 5th in the West. In the NHL, Montreal is fighting for its playoff lives, and they may have to (literally) do that tonight (after how their last game ended). We’ll get more into detail on that below. And in baseball, Vladimir Guerrero Jr doesn’t have a home run yet, and it’s a special night for the slugger. Does the data look special, too?

Let’s get into it.

Warriors & Grizzlies Fight For Fifth

The Warriors are just a game back of Memphis, and a win tonight would change the landscape of the playoffs in the west (even temporarily). When we started digging into the data for this game, one thing stood out: Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jackson Jr points line tonight is 21.5, and he’s averaged 25.4 points per game over his last 5 games against Golden State, 3 of which were this season.

And in his last 5 games against the Warriors, he’s averaged 6 rebounds per game. His rebounds line tonight is 5.5.

Jackson Jr usually lines up as a power forward for Memphis, with Zach Edey playing the 5, but because of how Jackson Jr plays, he gets minutes at both positions. Because of that, it’s worth pointing out how Golden State ranks in points and rebounds defense against both positions:

• Points, Centers: 7th, 20.2 per game

• Rebounds, Centers: 28th, 16.8 per game

• Points, Power Forwards: 26th, 23.9 per game

• Rebounds, Power Forwards: 13th, 9.9 per game

But again, Jackson Jr is mainly a power forward, so this matchup plays in his favour. Lastly, he’s been dynamite in back-to-backs this season, averaging 25.1 points.

He’s also played some pretty good ball lately, going over this 21.5 points line in 3 of his last 5 games while averaging 22.6 points.

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Montreal & Florida Should Be A Battle

If you saw how the Florida and Montreal game ended on Sunday, you know we’re in for some fun tonight. If you didn’t see how it ended, Panthers defenceman Niko Mikkola took a slap shot from his end with less than a second left in a 2-goal game, and almost took off David Savard’s head.

Mikkola was fined, and Montreal got a few shots in, but we doubt we’ve seen the end of this. This game also has huge playoff implications, with Florida chasing Toronto for the division lead, and Montreal just barely in a playoff spot and needing the two points. Emotions, desperation, and passion are bound to fly high tonight, and so we dove into the data to find something to like in this matchup on Props.Cash.

The Captains: Aleksander Barkov & Nick Suzuki

Barkov and Suzuki are the two players we’re focusing on. Let’s first start with Barkov. Barkov’s shots on goal line is 1.5, a line that he’s eclipsed in 70% of his games this season, averaging 2.2 shots on goal and 4.5 shot attempts per game.

And it’s no secret that Montreal isn’t a great team defensively. They allow 29 shots per game, 24th in the NHL, and Barkov has taken advantage of this matchup in the past, averaging 2.9 shots on goal per game in his last 14 matchups against the Habs, going over this 1.5 in 11 of those 14 games.

And Nick Suzuki has a point in 71% of his home games, and 2 or more points in 31% of his home games, and 9 points in his last 5 home games.

He also had 3 points against Florida on Sunday.

Vladdy Bobblehead Night

Who doesn’t love a good bobblehead narrative?

Vlad hasn’t hit an HR this season, and the bobblehead narrative had picked up steam on Betting Twitter. But how does his matchup look? He’s never faced Nationals righty Trevor Williams, but there is one thing about the matchup that stood out.

Williams throws his breaking ball 34.7% of the time, and although the barrel % on his breaking ball is just 6.4%, BB are Vladdy’s bread and butter. A start that relies that heavily on his breaking ball, going up against Vladdy, who had a 15.4 barrel percentage against them last season, is noteworthy.

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See you Thursday!