Three Betting Stats to Consider For Thursday Night Football

And a few notes for tonight's NBA games...

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Thursday Night Football: What Can We Expect?

When we started our research for the newsletter, three things stood out about Thursday Night Football:

  • The Commanders are not very good against the run, and Saquon Barkley has (obviously) been one of the best running backs in the league this season. And Barkley is getting the ball way more at home than he is on the road.

  • Jayden Daniels runs the ball on the road at a much higher clip than at home.

  • Even though the Commanders don’t give up much in the air, Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown have frequently exposed them in past matchups.

The Commanders’ rush defense is one of the worst in the league, ranked 28th in rush yards allowed (142.7) and teams have realized they can expose it, averaging 29.40 rush attempts per game (7th most in the league).

Washington’s rush defense is their liability

And, well, they have to face Saquon Barkley. Barkley has been one of the best running backs in the league this season, averaging 110.1 yards per game. He should get plenty of opportunity against this Washington defense. Not only because they aren’t very good, but also because Nick Sirianni has used him on the ground at home much more than he has when the birds have been on the road.

Barkley at home

Barkley on the road

Barkley is averaging 16 rush attempts on the road this season, and a staggering 22.8 attempts at home.

Barkley’s rushing yards line is 92.5, and his rush attempts line is 18.5.

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Jayden Daniels On The Road

Saquon Barkley runs more often at home than he does on the road, and the opposite can be said for Jayden Daniels. When Daniels is away from Northwest Field, he averages 10 rush attempts per game, compared to 7 attempts on home turf.

Daniels on the road

Daniels at home

Per game, his home and away splits for yardage are essentially the same. Daniels averages 46.6 yards at home this season, compared to 46.2 yards on the road.

Daniels rushing attempts line is 7.5 tonight, and his rushing yards line is 41.5.

Washington may give up the 5th lowest passing yards per game (182.2) and teams attempt the least amount of passes against them (27 per game), but over his last 6 games against Washington, Jalen Hurts has found some serious success.

Hurts head-to-to against Washington

Especially last season, where Hurts racked up two games with identical yardage. In the October 29th game, he only had one more passing attempt than in the October 1st game. And over those two games, he racked up 6 passing touchdowns to zero interceptions.

In those two games last October, when Hurts combined for 638 yards, AJ Brown accounted for a staggering 47% yard share (175 & 130, 305 total receiving yards). In his last 4 games against Washington, dating back to 2022, Brown has averaged 99.3 yards. That includes an uncharacteristic game in November 2022 where Brown had 1 catch for 7 yards on 4 targets.

Brown head-to-head against Washington

Here are the three betting lines that are relevant to all the information above:

  • Jalen Hurts passing yards line is 223.5, a line he’s gone over in 5/9 games this season and 3 of 4 at home.

  • Hurts passing touchdown line is 1.5, a line he’s gone over in 4/9 games this season and 3 of 4 at home.

  • AJ Brown’s receiving yard line is 82.5 or 80.5, a line he’s gone over in 5/6 games this season and 2 of 3 at home.

Tonight In The NBA

There’s only one game in the NBA tonight ahead of night two in the NBA Cup tomorrow, so we wanted to share one note from Props.Cash that you could consider in your research.

Centers vs Utah

The Utah Jazz are getting destroyed in every facet of the game by centers right now. They rank bottom 5 against centers in almost every statistical category.

29th in points, 27th in rebounds, 25th in assists and so much more

The only thing that centers aren’t doing against Utah is getting to the free-throw line. Walker Kessler remains out for Utah tonight, so this should continue with one of Derek Lively or Daniel Gafford. Lively has been playing more center for the Mavs than Gafford, who’s seen more time as a power forward. Do your research on Props.Cash, but that’s the one thing we noticed for tonight’s game.

Here are the betting lines for both players that are relevant to all the information above:

Derek Lively:

  • Lively’s points line is 9.5. He’s been over this in 4 of 7 games, averaging 9.7 points per game.

  • Lively’s rebounds line in 8.5. He’s 4 for 7 against this line this season, averaging 8.1 rebounds per game and 9.3 rebounds on the road.

  • Lively’s assists line is 1.5. He’s over this in 5 of 7 games this season, averaging 2.4 assists per game.

Daniel Gafford:

  • Gafford’s points line is 10.5. He’s 6 for 11 against this line, and over in 4 straight. He averages 11.7 points at home, but 13 points on the road.

  • Gafford’s rebound line is 6.5. He’s 6 for 11 against this line.

  • Gafford’s assists line is 0.5. He’s been over this in 3 of 7 games and averages 0.6 assists per game.

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