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There are six games in the NBA tonight, and using the DvP and play type ranking filters, we’re going to dive into three 3PTM trends for tonight’s slate. There are also NHL cheat sheets further down, from @WallaBets. Before we get into the data, there are a couple of new tutorials we want to let you know about.

For our NHL community, we released a tutorial yesterday highlighting the new desktop tool. Check it out, here:

And for our NBA and NHL users (and MLB users soon), there’s a new feature on our desktop tool: Market Movers. Check out our tutorial for the new side panel, here:

Now, let's get into the 3PTM props.

NBA 3PTM Trends

Aaron Nesmith, 1.5 3PTM

Nesmith and the Pacers play the Clippers tonight, and LA ranks 27th in 3-pointers allowed to opposing shooting guards. When Nesmith plays bottom-five shooting guard defenses, he has outstanding numbers.

In those 7 games, he’s averaging 2.6 made threes with a 100% hit rate. Be wary, though: he hasn’t played since February 19th and is questionable tonight, the first positive sign in his injury status since his ankle sprain on the 19th.

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Tyrese Maxey, 3.5 3PTM

The Utah Jazz rank 28th in 3-pointers allowed to opposing point guards, and when Maxey plays poor 3-point defenses, he has strong data.

Maxey against the bottom 5 PG defenses

In his 9 games against bottom 5 defenses, he’s averaging 4.1 threes made, with a 67% hit rate. His top play type looks good, too:

Maxey against bottom 10 transition defenses

Maxey scores 21.6% of his points in transition, and the Jazz rank dead last in transition defense. He’s averaging 3.8 made threes in games against bottom 5 transition defenses, with an 88% hit rate.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, 2.5 3PTM

Alexander-Walker and the Hawks are playing the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank dead last in 3-pointers allowed to opposing shooting guards. Before we get into how Alexander-Walker performs against poor defenses, we’d like to establish his baseline for 3-point attempts first. This season, in all situations, he’s averaging 8.1 attempts from 3.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, 3-pointers made and attempts this season

And against the bottom 10 shooting guard defenses, he’s averaging 8.7 attempts. But the thing to note is that he has 8 games against bottom 10 defenses with 9 or more attempts, and 6 games with 7 or fewer attempts. In the games with 7 or fewer, he’s averaging 1.3 makes with a 14% hit rate. In the games with 9 or more attempts, he’s averaging 4.5 made threes with an 88% hit rate.

3-pointers against bottom 10 defenses, when attempting 9 or more threes

Volume is the key here: in his L10 with 7 or more attempts from three, he’s averaging 2.8 3PTM with a 70% hit rate.

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