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Strikeouts, Hard Hit Percentage & Hits Allowed

Today’s slate features an intriguing mix: historical batter vs. pitcher trends, strikeout matchups that favor both arms and lineups, and several hot hitters and pitchers looking to stay in rhythm. When we dug into Props.Cash, we found three pitchers with interesting outlooks for today’s slate: Max Scherzer in terms of strikeout history, J.T Ginn for hard hit percentage, and for hits allowed, Eduardo Rodriguez.

Max Scherzer, Strikeout

Scherzer had his best performance of his short Blue Jays career just before the all star break, racking up 8 strikeouts, throwing 90 pitches over 6 innings allowing 3 earned runs, off of 2 home runs. Can he build on that tonight? History says its possible. Since 2021 he has faced 6 of the 9 Yankees batters, and we want to emphasize three of those players.

Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton have combined for 25 plate appearances against Max Scherzer — and they've struck out 15 times (60% K rate). Individually, their strikeout rates are 61.5% (Judge, 13 PA’s), 60% (Bellinger, 5 PA’s), and 57.1% (Stanton, 7 PA’s.)

And although Scherzer is a predominate fastball pitcher, he throws his breaking ball 21.1% of the time, and this is how these three batters stack up against changeups and fastballs.

• Cody Bellinger strikeouts 18.1% to changeups and 15.1% to fastballs.

• Giancarlo Stanton strikeouts 28.6% to changeups and 33.3% to fastballs.

• Aaron Judge strikeouts 23.5% to changeups and 29.0% to fastballs.

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J.T. Ginn, Hard Hit Percentage

Of the 407 pitchers who have had 100 plate appearances against opposing batter this season, J.T. Ginn has been hit the 22nd hardest. His 49.4 hard hit percentage is bested by only 21 other pitchers. He hasn’t registered

He’s only thrown 50 or more pitches once in his last five starts, so it’s an early and often approach with Ginn. Corey Seager, who likely hits second tonight, is a player to possibly circle. He has 2+ HRR in four straight games, he has a 16.9 barrel percentage against fastballs (Ginn is a predominate fastball pitcher, with a 64.6% pitch share) and lefties have absolutely crushed Ginn this season.

They’re hitting .344 against Ginn this season.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Hits Allowed

There may not be a pitcher in baseball that has consistently given up as much as Rodriguez has this season - he’s given up 20 hits and 12 earned runs in his last two starts, he’s given up 6+ hits in 10 of 16 starts this season (63%) and has averaged 6.6 hits allowed per home start this season.

Against Rodriguez, the focus has to be on lefties. He has been crushed by that handidness this season, they’re hitting .362 against him. The only two lefties featured in the Astros projected linup are switch hitters - Victor Caratini and Cooper Hummel.

Caratini is probably the player to focus on here - he has limited expierence vs Rodriguez (1 hit in 1 at-bat, 1 walk), he’s hitting .312 vs left handed pitchers (compared to .260 vs righties) and he has 2 or more HRR in three straight games.

He also has a hit in 2 of his last 3 games vs a lefty starter.

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups — July 22nd 🔥

⚾ Matt Olson: 3+ HRR in 3 of L4 💣
⚾ Shea Langeliers: .375 AVG in 9 PA’s vs deGrom 🔥
⚾ Christian Yelich: .500 AVG in 6 PA’s vs Gilbert with 2 HRs 💥
⚾ Jose Altuve: .350 AVG in 21 PA’s vs Rodriguez 🚀 

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See you Thursday!