Three Thoughts for Three MLB Games

And partner plays for the WNBA and the MLB BvP matchups for today

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Small Slate in Major League Baseball

Today is Major League Baseball’s trade deadline and the NFL Hall of Fame game, and with that, baseball rolls out a small slate of three games.

  • Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees, 1:05 PM

  • Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 PM

  • Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers, 9:40 PM

There aren’t a lot of angles for the three games, but we found three storylines to consider in your research for today’s slate.

  • TB/NYY: Can Josh Lowe show up YET AGAIN at Yankee Stadium?

  • ATL/CIN: How many strikeouts for Andrew Abbott?

  • SEA/TEX: Can Kumar Rocker get 5 strikeouts?

Let’s start in New York, which kicks off the small slate early this afternoon.

The Rays right fielder owns a .282 career average in the Bronx — his highest mark in any city he’s played 10+ games in.

That number is trending up thanks to this current series:
⚾ .333 AVG
⚾ 1.179 OPS
⚾ 9 HRR (2+ in all 3 games)

Josh Lowe’s head-to-head vs the Yankees, with this current series on the right

He’s got one more game to make his mark, and Lowe is locked in — Yankee Stadium is his playground. He faces Marcus Stroman today, who he has had 3 hits against in 10 PA’s (.300 average), and Stroman has given up 5 or more hits in four straight starts.

Marcus Stroman’s hits allowed, L5 starts

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Andrew Abbott, 4.5 Strikeouts

Abbott has averaged 5.3 strikeouts per start this season, clearing this 4.5 strikeout line in 67% of his starts this season, and 4.9 strikeouts per start at home, clearing this line in 70% (7/10) of his home starts.

Abbott’s strikeouts at home this season

He gets an ok matchup against the Braves, who rank 15th this season in strikeouts against left-handed pitchers, but this is a matchup he’s exposed in the past. On May 6th, Abbott struck out 8 Braves batters, his second-highest of the season.

Abbott H2H vs the Braves

Austin Riley and Michael Harris led the way, striking out in both of their at-bats.

The Seattle Mariners lead baseball in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days, and rank 9th overall in baseball this season. Even though he gets an outstanding matchup, Rocker isn’t an elite strikeout guy, ranking in the 36th percentile in baseball this season. He’s averaged 4.1 strikeouts per start this season, and only 3.1 strikeouts on the road, but he does have 10 total strikeouts in his last 2 starts.

Rocker’s strikeouts this season

If you’re looking for a batter strikeout prop, consider Randy Arozarena, who has struck out 28.6% of the time vs Rocker in 7 plate appearances, and who has struck out a team high 28.6% of the time vs right-handed pitchers this season.

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Batter vs Pitcher Matchups, July 31st

Taylor Walls: 2+ HRR in 8 of L10, 11 total HRR in L4 😮‍💨
Ryan McMahon: 11 HRR in 5 games as a Yankee 😤
Elly De La Cruz: Switch-hitters hitting .438 vs Carrasco this year 🔥
Adolis García: .300 AVG in 21 PA’s vs Kirby 💣

WNBA Partner Plays

We’ve plucked a WNBA partner play from Twitter that had solid research and outstanding data - check it out below!

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See you Tuesday!