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The Wait Is Over!

The NFL has ARRIVED! It’s been 211 days since the Eagles beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, and those same Eagles kick off the season tonight against Dallas. In today’s newsletter:

• We’re going to dive into analysis for the first game of the season using projections.

• Link out to some great partner plays for Thursday Night Football

• Showcase our first TWO contests of the NFL season.

• And highlight our Batter vs Pitcher matchup sheet in baseball.

Let’s not waste any time. Here are the top three projections from the Props.Cash model for tonight’s first game.

Props.Cash Projections and H2H Data for TNF

Diving into the Props.Cash tool, we found two projections and one player’s head-to-head data that may be worth looking at. One of the props is for a passing touchdown, one is for the longest reception, and the last one is for a kicking prop. Friendly reminder: the projections aren’t guaranteed; they’re only projections based on a variety of factors.

Projection Prop - Jake Elliott, 1.5 Field Goals

The projection model likes Jake Elliot tonight, and we think we found a couple of reasons why. Elliot needs to field goals to go over this number, and he cleared 2 field goals in 67% of his games last season, and more importantly, 77% of his home games last season.

If we look at his head-to-head data, it’s just as good. He has at least 2 field goals in 6 of his last 7 games against the Cowboys.

And that’s why our projection model likes him to have 2.02 field goals tonight.

Projection Prop - DeVonta Smith, 20.5 Longest Reception

The projection model also likes Smith tonight to surpass his longest reception by 8.50 yards, racking up a longest reception of 28.50 yards. Similar to Elliot, it’s not surpassing this mark in 65% of his games last season, averaging a longest reception of 25.90.

And his history against Dallas is outstanding. He’s cleared this mark in 5 of his last 8 games against the Cowboys, and in 3 of his last 4 games at home versus Dallas, averaging a longest reception of 29 yards per game.

Last season, the Cowboys gave up the longest plays on average through the air to opposing wide receivers, too.

H2H Prop - Dak Prescott, 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

The projection model has Prescott at 1.40 passing touchdowns, but his head-to-head data caught our eye. Yes, he only cleared this game in 4 of his 8 games last season before going down with an injury in November, but he has cleared this number in 5 straight games against Philadelphia.

He’s averaged 2.7 passing touchdowns in his last 3 home games against Philly, too.

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NFL Contests on X and Instagram

We’re running two contests for the first weekend of the NFL season! One of those is live on X, and you can win $100 by guessing the First TD scorer of tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. Submit your answer here:

And on Sunday, keep your eye on our Instagram. We’ll be running the same contest for the Bills/Ravens game on Sunday Night Football. Follow us here! 

And then on Monday, we’ll run it back on X to close out week one with a First TD contest for the Vikings/Bears Monday Night Football game.

Partner Plays for Thursday Night Football

Some of our partners on X and on Instagram have released some well-researched, detailed plays for the first game of the NFL season. Check some of them out below:

GKSportsGamblin - Williams Longest Rush

DBJ Betting - AJ Brown, Targets

Breezy - TNF Parlay

Batter vs Pitcher Matchup Sheet

🔥 Batter vs Pitcher Matchups - Sept 4th 🔥

⚾ Kwan vs Pepiot: 2+ HRR in 7 of L8 games 🔥💥
⚾ Witt Jr. vs Hendricks: Hitting .308 since Aug 23rd 🚨
⚾ Peña vs Rodón: .571 AVG in 8 PA’s vs Rodón 💣
⚾ Teel vs Bradley: Hitting .750 AVG in 4 PA’s vs Bradley 💥

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

See you SUNDAY!