Four Teams Remain

The Boston Celtics were supposed to be here, and the Dallas Mavericks aren’t a big surprise either…but not many people had the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers in the conference finals before the season started. The eastern side of the bracket gets going Tuesday, with the Pacers in Boston for game one. Let’s get into some betting trends, but first…

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NBA Trends

Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics’ opponents so far in the playoffs and their postseason defensive ratings: the Miami Heat (117.7), the Cleveland Cavaliers (111.1), and the Indiana Pacers (121.7). Celtics player props trended under in their first two series, but now they get the worst defensive team in the playoffs so far.

Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points+Assists

Holiday has only gone over this line in 2 of his last 10 games, but it’s his matchup data versus the Pacers that caught our eye.

Holiday has gone over this in 6 straight home games against Indiana and 10 of his last 12 games against the Pacers overall.

Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points

Again, Tatum’s recent data is awful. He’s missed this line in 8 of his last 10 games, but the Pacers just don’t defend the same as the Heat and Cavs. The proof is in the historical head-to-head data.

Tatum is over this line in 9 of his last 11 games against Indiana and 8 straight games against Indiana.

Obi Toppin Over 13.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Over in 8 of his last 10 games overall, and over in 5 straight games against the Celtics, Obi Toppin is our favorite Pacer trend of the night. He’s played a key role in both series so far, and we don’t see that changing in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves are fun, man.

And this series should be fun, too. The Timberwolves, the new team on the block, vs the Mavs, who have been here before. They lost to the Warriors in the 2022 WCF in 5 games.

Derrick Jones Jr. Over 12.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

Jones Jr. has cruised past this line lately, going over in three straight and 8 of his last 10.

And although Derrick Jones isn’t Michael Porter Jr, Porter Jr crushed this line in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. Small forwards have had success against Minnesota this year.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 28.5 Points+Rebounds

Strictly highlighting the head-to-head data here: Towns went over this line in 3 of his 4 matchups against the Mavs this season and 7 of his last 8 matchups against the Mavs in the last two seasons.

NHL Trends

Florida Panthers vs New York Rangers

This series is likely going to be three things: epic, mean, and long.

Vincent Trochek and Mika Zibanejad Over 0.5 Points

If the New York Rangers won the Stanley Cup today, these two guys would likely be the two favorites for the Conn Smythe. They’ve combined for 28 points in the Rangers’ first 10 playoff games, with 14 points apiece.

Sergei Bobrovsky Over 25.5 Saves

Yes, the regular season and playoff are different, but Bobrovsky was shelled in every game he played against the Rangers this season.

In all three starts, he went over this line. And with game one at MSG, we’re expecting more of the same.

MLB Trend of the Day

Rock, meet scissors. Scissors, meet rock.

In this analogy, Kyle Bradish is the rock, and the St Louis Cardinals lineup is scissors.

Kyle Bradish Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Bradish has averaged 6.4 strikeouts through 3 starts this season and he’s gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 games.

And he gets a juicy matchup against the Cardinals, who strikeouts the 10th most in baseball against righties.

Thursday Recap

NBA Trends

Anthony Edwards Over 29.5 Points ❌ Blowouts, man. The Timberwolves destroyed the Nuggets by 45 points. If Edwards had played his normal minutes, this easily goes over. He finished with 27.

Aaron Gordon Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists ✅ The blowout almost cooked us again, but Gordon came through in just 28 minutes with 24 P+R+A.

NHL Trends

Sebastian Aho Over 0.5 Points ✅ The Canes blew a 3-1 lead in the third and they’re golfing now, but Aho had a goal and an assist.

Vincent Trochek Over 0.5 Points ✅ The Rangers are headed to the Eastern Conference Final, and Trochek’s goal and assist helped them punch their ticket.

Zach Hyman Over 0.5 Goals ❌ Hyman goes without a goal in three straight games for the first time this season. Oof.

Quinn Hughes Over 0.5 Assists ❌ It felt like Hughes did everything BUT find the scoresheet.

MLB Trends

Tyler Glasnow Over 8.5 Strikeouts ❌ Glasnow had 91 pitches through 5 innings, and that cooked us. He finished with 8 K’s.

JT Realmuto Over 1.5 Total Bases ✅ Realmuto goes green, with two singles.

WNBA Trends

Sabrina Ionescu Over 3.5 3PTM & Caitlin Clark Over 3.5 3PTM ❌ ❌ Neither young star had a good game. Ionescu shot 2 for 8 from three and Clark was 1 for 7. Ouch.

4/10 on Thursday, not our best. Since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th, our suggested trends are 45/86 (52%).

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