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Touchdowns For Week 14
There are some great games in the NFL this week, but there are five games in particular that stand out:
Bengals at Bills, 1 PM: The Bills are 8-4, one game inside the playoff picture. The Bengals are 4-8, and because the AFC North isn’t very good, they’re still alive in the playoff picture. Every game is a must-win for them. Allen vs Burrow. Need I say more?!
Steelers at Ravens, 1 PM: Both 6-6, tied for the division lead. The Ravens have the tougher schedule down the stretch, and the Steelers need divisional wins. This has massive playoff implications for the division (duh), and Bengals fans will also be watching closely. Massive game.
Colts at Jaguars, 1 PM: The Colts have lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4, so now the Jags are first in the AFC South. They’re both 8-4, but a loss for the Colts sees their playoff chances drop to 34% from their current standing of 78%, and a loss for the Jaguars sends them from 99% to 67%. A lot is on the line for both teams.
Bears at Packers, 4:25 PM: Bears vs Packers. The Packers (8-3-1) are half a game back of the Bears for the division lead. ‘Nuff said.
Texans at Chiefs, Sunday Night Football: The Chiefs are fighting for their playoff lives, believe it or not. They’re 6-6, two games out of the wild card, the division is out of reach, and they need a big December to make a push. The Texans are in a better spot, one game up, and a win would go a long way for them - their playoff chances go from 89% with a win to 45% with a loss.
So, let’s look at one potential touchdown scorer in each game.
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Bengals at Bills: Ja’Marr Chase
Chase hasn’t scored a touchdown in 4 straight games, but the looks have been there. He has at least 2 redzone targets in all three games, and in 2024 games, with at least 2 red zone targets, Chase had a touchdown in 8 of 11 qualifying games.
Chase in 2024 with 2+ redzone targets
He’s also seen 24 targets in his last 2 games and had at least 10 targets in both games. Over his last 30 with 10+ targets on the road, he’s scored a touchdown in 71% of his games, and in 67% of his L30 overall.
The matchup isn’t great - only 18% of opposing wide receivers have scored a TD versus the Steelers in their last 10 games, but 5 of the last 9 number one receivers to face the Bills have found the endzone.
Steelers at Ravens: Derrick Henry
Henry has been much more effective at home this season, not in terms of yards -averaging 60.4 at home vs 101.6 on the road, with 16.6 carries on average on the road and 16.3 on average at home - but in terms of touchdowns.
Henry’s touchdown at home this season
He has 5 touchdowns in his last 3 games at home, and is averaging 1.0 touchdowns per game at home with a 71% hit rate. On the road, he’s averaging 0.6 touchdowns, with just three touchdowns total and two touchdowns in 5 games.
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Colts at Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten
The Colts have given up six touchdowns in their last 3 games, and 5 of them have come on the ground. Etienne is a more obvious pick here, but after getting just four carries 4 weeks ago, Tuten has 7 or more carries in three straight, averaging 10 carries. More importantly, he had 2 or more redzone carries in 2 of his first eight games, and now he has 2+ redzone carries in four straight.
Tuten’s rush attempts and red zone rushing attempts
He has a touchdown in 3 of his last 5 games, too.
Bears at Packers: De’Andre Swift
Can one of the best road warriors in the NFL keep it going? Swift has 6 touchdowns this season, and 5 of the 6 have come on the road.
Swift’s touchdown data on the road this season
A few other notes on Swift:
He has at least one red zone rush attempt in every game this season, so the opportunities have been there.
Swift comes into this game with a touchdown in back-to-back against the Packers.
After 13 or fewer carries in three of his last four games, he racked up 18 carries last week. In games with 14+ carries this season, he has a touchdown in 4 of 6 games.
The Packers rank 9th in touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs, but they have given up a touchdown to an opposing back in 2 of their last 3 games (David Montgomery, shutout against Minnesota & 2 to Devin Singletary).
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Chiefs at Texans: Travis Kelce
Kelce has 2 touchdowns in 7 non-primetime games this season, averaging 0.7 redzone targets this season. In primetime, Kelce has a touchdown in 3 of his games, with an average of 1.0 redzone targets. It’s also worth noting that Mahomes has consistently thrown to Kelce in games against the Texans…
He has 5 or more catches in three straight, 7 or more in two of those games.
He’s averaging 1.0 redzone targets in those three games.
He has 7 or more targets in 3 straight versus the Texans.
It’s also worth noting that he averaged 5.88 targets in his first 9 games and 8.33 targets in his last 3 weeks. Without Rashee Rice, he averaged 4.7 receptions and 6.2 targets, and with Rice, he’s averaged 5.2 receptions and 6.8 targets.
If that continues, the touchdowns should come, considering he’s scored in 4 of his last 5 with five or more receptions.
Kelce’s last 5 games with 5 or more receptions