Touchdowns, Touchdowns, Touchdowns!

The Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship was the game we all expected and the game NFL fans deserve.

The Commanders vs Eagles NFC Championship was not the game we all expected, let’s be honest. This run by the Washington has been one for the ages, and Jayden Daniels has proven that he’s here to stay.

A good jumping-off point for our research is looking at how these 4 teams have matched up this past season:

• Bills vs Chiefs November 17th: Bills scored 4 touchdowns (James Cook x2, Josh Allen, Curtis Samuel), and the Chiefs scored 3 touchdowns (Noah Grey x2, Xavier Worthy).

• Commanders vs Eagles November 14th and December 22nd: Commanders scored 7 combined touchdowns (Brian Robinsons, Zach Ertz, Jamison Crowder x2, Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus x2), and the Eagles scored 6 combined touchdowns (Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley x4).

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NFC Championship

The over/under for this game is set at 48 or 49 at the time of writing, depending on where you look. There’s been plenty of touchdowns between these two in their previous two games, so let’s hope for more of the same today. First, the Commanders.

Commanders

The focus for Washington has to be in the air - Jayden Daniels threw 6 passing touchdowns versus the Eagles this year. The one catch is that 5 of those were at home, just one of them was on the road, and this game is in Philly. But Daniels still has 4 passing touchdowns in the playoffs so far, and both games were on the road.

Zach Ertz

Ertz had 4 touchdowns in the first 11 weeks, but since then he’s been an absolute machine for this Washington squad. He has 18 receptions, 176 yards, and most importantly, 4 touchdowns in his last 4 games.

He had a touchdown against the Eagles earlier this season and a touchdown last week versus the Lions. As elite as this Eagles’ defense is, they allowed two passing touchdowns last week to the Rams and both of them went to tight ends.

He’s also had 3+ red zone targets in 3 of his last 4 games, a good sign for the prospect of him scoring a touchdown this week.

Eagles

We have to take the obvious route here - the focus for the Eagles is on the ground. Barkley or Hurts, take your pick. Hurts was injured the last time they played Washington, but did score back in November. Barkley has 4 touchdowns in the two games versus the Commanders this season, two in each game.

Barkley Over Hurts

We’re going to go Barkley here - we realize there’s not much imagination in that but that’s where the data leads us. Regardless of how the Commanders’ season ends, with a Super Bowl win or a loss along the way, you have to imagine addressing their rush defense is going to be priority #1. Their defense numbers against running backs:

.They’re a bottom 6 team in rushing yards allowed, and the bottom ten in several other rushing categories, and have allowed a running back to score a touchdown in 6 straight weeks, with three multi-touchdown running backs in that stretch.

Barkley touchdown odds are going to be low, so Barkley 2 or Barkley first is the way to find value here. But ultimately, the data leads to Barkley.

AFC Championship

The over/under for this game is set at 48.5 or 47.5 at the time of writing, depending on where you look. Earlier this season, the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21, with 7 total touchdowns. We’re bound to see some scoring in this game, so let’s dive into the data to see who may find the end zone in the biggest AFC game of the year. First, the Bills.

Bills

The focus for the Bills is going to be on the ground, too. Stick with us here: they don’t give up a lot, at all, to running backs:

But like we said, stick with us here…

Josh Allen

The Chiefs give up quite a bit to quarterbacks on the ground.

Quarterbacks are averaging 22.5 rushing yards per game against KC (21st) and 0.25 rushing touchdowns per game (21st). Allen scored against them earlier this season and has been dynamite on the road in recent weeks.

If the Bills score, the data like Allen to be the one to do it. One last thing before we move on; when Allen has 2+ rushing attempts in the red zone, he has a TD in 5 of 8 games, and 5 of 6 games when he has 3+ red zone rushing attempts. The Bills average 4 trips to the red zone per game, so hopefully Allen gets his chances.

He also has a touchdown in 4 of his last 6 games versus Kansas City, and 3 in a row.

Chiefs

The Bills’ defense isn’t exceptional by any stretch, but they’re good at keeping every position out of the end zone, by averages.

• They allow 0.67 receiving TDs per game to wide receivers, 5th best in the league.

• They allow 0.08 rushing TDs per game to quarterbacks, 8th best in the league.

• They allow 0.25 receiving TDs per game to tight ends, 12th best in the league.

• They allow 0.5 rushing TDs per game to running backs, 8th best in the league.

So where do we go with this one? To the head-to-head data.

Travis Kelce vs the Bills In The Playoffs

Kelce has three touchdowns in his last two games versus the Bills in the postseason - two last January, and one in 2022.

And everyone knows that Kelce is a beast in the playoffs. Kelce has a touchdown in 9 of his last 11 games, and 11 touchdowns in that span.

And the Bills have allowed a passing touchdown in 3 of their last 5 games to tight ends:

• Divisional Week, Isaiah Likely

• Wild Card Weekend, no tight end

• Week 18, no tight end

• Week 17, Tyler Conklin

• Week 16, Hunter Henry

Can Kelce continue his playoff legacy? We shall see.

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See you Tuesday for some NBA breakdowns!