Touchdowns: Week 15 in the NFL

1 PM window: running backs, 4 PM window: receivers, primetime: a little bit of both

Author

Michael Mohorovich
December 15, 2024

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NFL Touchdown Analysis, But First…

Before we get into some touchdown analysis for week 15, check out our Instagram. We post reels daily, highlighting trends we’ve found on Props.Cash, with a focus on showcasing the power of the tool. Make sure to follow us on Instagram, here. Here’s an example of what you’ll find:

Now, let’s get into some touchdown analysis.

We were on our Instagram Saturday, commenting on posts throughout the betting community, when we came across a post that asked if every game in the 1 PM window would have a rushing touchdown. Naturally, we dove into Props.Cash to see how every main running back for each team stacked up against their opposition, and this is what we found. We’ve copied and pasted our comment directly, below.

How this breaks down (each game, top RB TD’s, and rushing touchdowns allowed per game):

BAL vs NYG: Henry (15 TD’s), Giants allow 1.08 per game (21st). Tracy (5 TD’s), Ravens allow 0.85 rushing TD’s per game (12th).

NYJ vs JAC: Hall (6 TD’s), Jacksonville allows 1.15 rushing TD’s per game (25th). Bigsby (5 TD’s), Jets allow 1.38 rushing TD’s (29th)

WSH vs NO: Robinson (8 TD’s), Saints allow 1.23 rushing TD’s (27th). Kamara (2 TD’s), Washington allows 1.00 rush TD’s per game (20th).

CIN vs TEN: Brown (9 TD’s), Titans allow 1.15 rushing TD’s (23rd). Pollard (4 TD’s), Bengals allow 1.23 rushing TD’s (26th).

MIA vs HOU: Mixon (12 TD’s), Miami allows 0.92 (13th), Achane (10 TD’s), Houston allows 0.54 (3rd).

KC vs CLE: Chubb (4 TD’s), KC allows 0.77 (9th), Pacheco (6 TD’s), Browns allow 1.38 (30th)

DAL vs CAR: Dowdle (4 TD’s), Panthers allow 1.46 rushing TD’s per game (31st), Hubbard (9 TD’s), Cowboys allow 1.62 rushing TD’s per game (32nd)

There are a couple of marquee running backs in the 1 PM window with outstanding matchups today.

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Receivers, Wide or Running Back, Anyone?

We wanted to show some love to the 4 PM window, too. A couple of noteworthy pieces of information jumped off the page, starting in Tampa Bay.

4 PM Window: Mike Evans and the Lions Running Backs on the Receiving End

Mike Evans has one touchdown in three games since returning from injury, and in his matchup this week he should have a couple of looks at the end zone. Tampa Bay faces the Chargers, who are top ten in passing yards and passing touchdowns, but it’s their numbers against wide receivers specifically that caught our attention.

The Chargers average 1 touchdown to wide receivers per game, 22nd in the league

The Chargers are a top 16 team in receiving yards to wide receivers, but a bottom ten team in a couple of key touchdown metrics:

  • receiving touchdowns (1), 22nd

  • average long reception (36.67), 23rd

  • yards per reception (13.38), 23rd

  • and overall touchdowns (1), 22nd

Over their last 5 games, here are the wide receivers 1’s they faced and whether or not they found the endzone

Week/Team

Wide Receiver 1

Touchdown

Did Another WR score?

Kansas City, Week 14

DeAndre Hopkins

✅

No

Atlanta, Week 13

Drake London

❌

No

Baltimore, Week 12

Zay Flowers

❌

Yes, Rashod Bateman

Cincinnati, Week 11

Ja’Marr Chase

✅ (he had two touchdowns)

Yes, Tee Higgins

Tennessee, Week 10

Calvin Ridley

✅ (he had two touchdowns)

No

Can Mike Evans, who has scored 7 touchdowns this season, follow in the success of some of these other big-name wide receivers and find the end zone today?

4 PM Window: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs

Here’s the thing about David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs; they love to score. Monty has 12 touchdowns in 13 games this season, with two multi-touchdown games. Gibbs also has 12 touchdowns in 13 games this season, with three multi-touchdown games. The Bills don’t give up a ton of rushing touchdowns, averaging 0.5 rushing TDs to running backs per game against, 8th best in the league. But in the air to running backs, the data tells another story…

The Bills are the second-worst team in receiving touchdowns allowed per game to RB’s

The Lions have averaged 0.42 receiving touchdowns per game against to running backs, the second worst in the league. This is how Monty and Gibbs break down in terms of receiving this season:

  • Gibbs is averaging 24 receiving yards, 2.6 receptions and 0.6 red zone targets this season. 2 of his 12 touchdowns have been receiving touchdowns.

  • Montgomery is averaging 23.8 receiving yards this season, 2.5 receptions, and 0.2 red zone targets. 0 of his 12 touchdowns have been receiving touchdowns.

Primetime

There are three primetime games this weekend:

  • Packers vs Seahawks, Sunday Night Football

  • Bears vs Vikings, Monday Night Football (8 PM)

  • Falcons vs Raiders, Monday Night Football (8:30 PM)

Here’s one touchdown note for each game:

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs has 7 touchdowns in his last three games, and the Seahawks are a bottom 12th team in rush attempts and a bottom 8 team in rushing yards. As for rushing touchdowns allowed, they’re actually top 12 (0.58 per game), but they’ve allowed a rushing touchdown in back-to-back weeks after not allowing a rushing touchdown for four straight weeks.

Bears, Vikings

Aaron Jones found the end zone three weeks ago against Chicago, kicking off a three-game touchdown streak that he hopes to continue against those same Bears on Monday Night Football. Jones had 129 combined rushing and receiving yards, on 22 carries and 3 receptions. He should be able to get some decent yardage again Monday, against a Bears D giving up a lot on the ground.

The Bears’ rushing defense is bottom 8 in attempts and yards, and bottom 12 in rushing TD’s

Will that translate to a Jones touchdown? Time will tell.

Falcons, Raiders

Bijan Robinson has a touchdown in 3 of his last 4, with a multi-touchdown game mixed in. His matchup on Monday is a good one, they’re in the bottom half of the league in most metrics versus running backs. But it’s one of those categories that caught our eye:

Running back receiving touchdowns is the box to look at

The Raiders allow 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game to running backs, 26th in the NFL. Here’s the issue: just one of Bijan’s 9 touchdowns is a receiving touchdown. Can he make it two against Las Vegas?

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See you Tuesday!