Two for Three: NBA, Stanley Cup Playoffs, Dinger Tuesday

Three teams hope to avoid a 2-0 hole in the first round of the NBA Playoffs tonight, three teams are in the same boat in the NHL and the Florida series gets underway and we hope to give you two home run hitters in the 15 games MLB sleight tonight. Lets get into it, starting in the NBA.

NBA

Jaren Jackson Jr, 5.5 Rebounds

Whether its Isaiah Hartenstein or Chet Holmgren guarding Jaren Jackson Jr, they’ve won the battle against the Memphis big man. In games against OKC this season where only Chet was healthy, Jackson Jr averaged only 2.5 rebounds.

And in his four games against OKC this season overall (in which Chet missed two), Jackson Jr has gone under this 5.5 rebound line in all 4 games, averaging only 3.3 rebounds.

He’s also only averaged 5.3 rebounds on the road this season, and gone under this number in 57% of his road games this season.

Naz Reid, 11.5 Points

Naz Reid had 23 points in game one, and has gone over this number in 2 of three games in Los Angeles this season. The one he missed? He only had 2 points, but shot 1 for 10 from the field, even though he’s been a 45.8% field goal shooter this season, and he’s averaged 11.5 field goal attempts per game this season.

Jaxson Hayes is the only big the Lakers have, and he barely plays (8.2 minutes in game one), so Reid should be able to expose the Lakers again tonight, especially considering they closed out the season giving up 20.43 points per game to centers, which put them 15th in center defense in the NBA over their final 5 games.

Stanley Cup Playoffs

When we did our research for the Stanley Cup Playoffs section of the newsletter, we found three betting trends we wanted to bring to you, so there’s a bonus trend below!

Logan Stankoven, 1.5 Shots on Goal

Ride the hot hand! Stankoven was the story of game one, with two goals, 7 shot attempts and 4 shots on goal.

And he closed out the season averaging 2.8 shots on goal, going over this line in 7 of his final 10 games (including game one).

Auston Matthews, 3.5 Shots on Goal

Auston Matthews was the only player from the ‘core four’ not to score in game one, so you know he’ll be looking to make it mark with the Leafs looking to grab a 2-0 series lead before the series heads back to Ottawa.

He had 6 shots on goal and 10 shot attempts in game one, and his history at home this season is so encouraging.

Bonus: Kaprill Kaprizov, 1.5 Points

He’s the best player on this team, and the face of the franchise. They lost game one, but he still racked up 2 points. If the Wild are going to even the series heading back to Minnesota, they’ll need their top guy who has 4 points in two games against Vegas this season.

Dinger Tuesday, MLB

Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez against Chris Bassitt: he has 4 home runs in 17 plate appearances against Bassitt, and has managed just 2 home runs so far this season. Alvarez’s underlying numbers aren’t very good right now, and although this BvP is really good, this is far from a lock. But with all that, its not Yordan Alvarez versus Jays starter Chris Bassitt tonight that caught out eye: it’s Yordan versus The Fade God, BookitWithTrent.

In case you’re wondering what we’re talking about…

Now, its not a perfect system. When Gunnar Henderson was looking for his first home run of the season, Trent tweeted Gunnar Henderson wouldn’t homer. He was right, he didn’t. But Gunnar did homer the first at bat the next day.

Who wins - the Fade God or the baseball gods? 👀

Corbin Carroll

Zach Littell has given up 6 home runs in his first 4 games, and left handed hitters have a 44% hard contact rating against Littell. Carroll has a .320 ISO this season, too, so there’s a lot of power in the bat in 2025. He already has 7 home runs this season, and the weather in Arizona plays into swing path tonight.

And Littel’s pitch mix of slider/sinker/fastball plays well for Carroll, who sees that mix well.

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See you Thursday!