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Shot Split Charts in the NBA

Last week, we launched our shot split charts on the Props.Cash app. They’re a tool you can use to see where on the court players score their points and how well their opponent defends that area of the court. We’re going to use that tool today, in combination with other data, to find some value in tonight’s NBA slate.

The Selected Few

In our research, we’ve found three players with good to great shot charts tonight and other data backing up what we found. Those three players are Immanuel Quickley (TOR vs NYK), Quentin Grimes (DAL vs PHI), and Nikola Jovic (MIA vs CHI).

Immanuel Quickley Versus His Former Team

The revenge narrative for Quickley is a fun one, but it’s his data that caught our eye. As promised, let’s start with his shot split chart. Although three Knicks defend the key well, where Quickley scored 24% of his points, they are 16th from beyond the arc, where Quickley scores 46% of his points.

And he racks up 15% of his points from the restricted area, where the Knicks are 21st in points allowed. If we dive further past his shot chart, Quickley, in games without RJ Barrett this season (who is out tonight), is averaging 15 points per game and has gone over his points line in 2 of three games without Barrett.

Although Quickley has only gone over this number in three of 6 home games, in the games he missed, he went under by just one basket and has 10 or more points in every game this season.

And a bonus to this matchup for Quickley is that point guards have covered their points line 85% (!) of the time over the Knicks’ last 10 games.

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Quentin Grimes Szn?

With Luka Doncic a Laker (it still doesn’t feel real), someone has to score for the Mavs! Of course, there are plenty of options ahead of him; Kyrie, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Klay Thompson. But the way Grimes has played over his last 10 games, and his shot chart, give us confidence in Grimes tonight.

The 76ers are 23rd and 27th in defending the areas on the court, where Grimes scores 40% and 25% of his points. Grimes's points line is 8.5 tonight, a line he’s covered in 70% of his games this season, 75% of his last 20 games, and more recently, 80% of his last 10 games.

PJ Washington is also out tonight, and in Grimes’s last five games without Washington in the lineup, he’s averaged 10.2 points.

And just like Quickley, here’s a bonus for Grimes: shooting guards are covering their points line 55% of the time over their last 10 games against Philly.

Nikola Jovic, Not Jokic

With all the drama surrounding Jimmy Butler and his expected departure from the Miami Heat, a few young players on the Heat have taken the opportunity to show what they can do, and Jovic is a prime example of that. And tonight, his shot chart is one of the best situations in the NBA slate.

Jovic scores a combined 61% of his points from beyond the arc (36%) and the restricted area (27%), two places where the Bulls rank 24th and 30th in defense. They also allow 23.84 points per game to power forwards, 6th most in the NBA. Jovic should have the opportunity to build on his strong play of late in this matchup.

His season average this season is 10.6, but over his last five, he’s averaged 13.0 and 12.4 over his last 10.

And without Butler, he’s averaged 12.2 points.

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See you Thursday!