Thursday night football started week 16 off with a BANG! 321 combined receiving yards and 3 touchdowns from Puka Nacau and Jaxson Smith-Njiba, over 700 yards passing from Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold, and a wild 4th quarter/overtime comeback.

Saturday afternoon was good, not great. If you’re an Eagles rank, it was great. They scored 4 touchdowns and won by 11. Now, before all the other week 16 games, they sit third in the NFC.

Saturday night was incredible - the game lacked some of the punch you’d think from an NFC North game, until the Bears made an incredible comeback and capped it off with a wild OT long-bomb TD.

What else does a packed week 16 have in store? This is how the schedule breaks down, and you’ll find one trend for each game below:

The trends below are a mix of trends we researched and trends from our partners on X. Now, let’s get into it.

In 5 of his last 6 games, Kareem Hunt is over this line, with 11 or more rushes in all 5 times going over. Yes, he went under last week, only running the ball 6 times. But with Patrick Mahomes out for the year, and Gardner Minshew under center, Hunt should get his looks again with the Chiefs looking forward to next season.

He’s facing Tennessee, who rank 20th in rushing attempts allowed to opposing backs. 13 of the 14 starting running backs to face the Titans this season have cleared this line, and even 2 of the last 3 backups have cleared this line.

This game is in Tennessee, which I think bodes well for Kareem. With noise and environment playing a role, the Chiefs may opt to make things a bit easier on Minshew and utilize their running backs. Hunt has also seen more use in road games this season.

He’s averaging 10 rushing attempts on the road, with a 67% hit rate. His hit rate at home? Just 38%.

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Most JJ props are just too scary to go near. Yes, he had a great game last Sunday. But the overall sample size is just too ugly to trust, except one: rushing yards. Across this season, he’s averaging 19.2 rushing yards with a 64% hit rate against his line of 14.5 rushing yards today.

He’s over this line in the last 2 games, with 19 & 15 yards. And his matchup is the best in the NFL, literally. No team in football gives up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, with quarterbacks clearing their line by an average of 3.7 yards against the Giants this season.

Although there’s a lot of under recently, we need to consider the most recent quarterbacks who would’ve gone under on McCarthy’s 14.5-yard line: Drake Maye, Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Mac Jones & Jalen Hurts. Goff, Love, and Jones are not mobile QB’s. Maye missed by 3 yards and Hurts by 2 yards.

For the “he’s due” crowd, this guy is for you.

It’s hard to believe he hasn’t scored in 6 straight games, especially since Joe Burrow is back. The Bengals play Miami, and although the Dolphins don’t give up a ton in the air, they’re a deflated team after capping off their winning streak with a horrendous loss last week on Monday Night Football. Admittedly, there’s not a lot of data here…

In November, across 5 games, the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed Trevor Lawrence to be sacked 12 times. In the two weeks since? Zero. But those two games were against the Jets and the Colts, who rank 31st and 11th in sacks this season. But, they do rank in the bottom 7 in sacks allowed to outside linebackers - and Denver has one of the best outside linebackers in the game, Nick Bonitto.

Big-name outside linebackers have already found success against Jacksonville throughout this season:

Consider this your wake-up call.

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With their season on the line, Goff has shown up. The team has only won 2 of their last 4, but Goff has 279 yards or more in 3 of those 4 games, 2 or more passing yards in 3 of those 4 games, and only 1 interception in his last 4. His passing yard line is 264.5 yards, and in his last 5, he’s cleared this number in 3 games, averaging 287.4 yards over all 5.

And he gets a wonderful matchup - the Steelers rank 29th in yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, with 60% clearing their lines against Pittsburgh in their last 10 games, by an average of 21.1 yards. Two more facts about Goff that we want you to know:

Give me the runner-up MVP! After a heartbreaking, gut-wrenching loss last week to Buffalo, this is a great bounce-back spot for Maye. His line is 241.5 passing yards, and he is averaging 254.8, with a 71% hit rate against this line.

Maye gets a great matchup for the bounceback - the Ravens rank 24th in yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, with 70% of opposing QBs clearing their line against Baltimore in their last 10 games by an average of 8.8 yards. 2 of the last 3 QBs to face Baltimore have cleared this line, too.

Oh, and he’s 3/3 this season against this line on primetime, averaging 278.7 yards, with games of 273/281/282.

We’ll post a reel with a trend for this game on our Instagram, here, on Monday!

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