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McDavid's Drought, Edgecombe's R&A + Tonight's Playoff Trends
The playoffs are rolling. Six games tonight — three NBA, three NHL — and we've got a trend for every single one of them.
Our partners have been busy today, and a few of them landed on the same games we were already looking at. We've pulled the best ones, linked straight back to their posts, and added our own data where it made sense.
Oh, and McDavid has zero points in this series. Just thought you should know.
Now, let's get into it.
NBA
BOS @ PHI: VJ Edgecombe, 9.5 Rebounds + Assists
Through the first two games of this series, VJ Edgecombe has been dynamite for Philadelphia. And there’s an interesting data set we found from the first two games that we hope carries over to tonight. Here it is:
No Joel Embiid: He needs to remain out for this data to stay relevant, and he is doubtful to play tonight.
Minutes: He’s played 34 & 35 minutes in the first two games. If Embiid remains out, and this game stays close, this should hold up.
Combine the two: when Embiid is out, and he plays 34 or more minutes, Edgecombe averages 10.6 rebounds and assists, and has a 63% hit rate against this line.
Combine the two, and look at more recent games: In his last 10 games with those parameters, he’s averaging 12.5 rebounds and assists with an 80% hit rate.
VJ Edgecombe in his last 10 games, when playing 34 or more minutes without Embiid
LAL @ HOU: Kevin Durant, 22.5 Points
SAS @ POR: Stephon Castle, 12.5 Rebounds & Assists
NBA Most Researched → The 5 Trends For April 24
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NHL
TB @ MTL: Cole Caufield, 3.5 Shots On Goal
Montreal managed to take a game in Tampa, and now they return home tied 1-1 with a chance to take a 2-1 series lead, and a chance to take a demanding 3-1 series lead with back-to-back wins at home this weekend. If that’s going to happen, they need their best player to enter the series. So far, Cole Caufield has just 3 shots on goal, only 6 shot attempts, zero goals, but has contributed three assists.
After his letter in The Players’ Tribune, you know he’s locked in for tonight. And with Montreal taking control of the last change at home, Martin St. Louis is going to be able to get him better matchups and better looks.
At home this season against Tampa, he got the looks in both games, getting off 5 shot attempts or more in both home games against Tampa, and 2 & 5 shots on goal in those two games. And the shot attempts at home will be the data set we focus on:
At home this season, Caufield has solid data with 5 or more shot attempts
He’s averaging 3.6 shots on goal at home this season, with a 67% hit rate against this line.
VGK @ UTA: JJ Peterka, 1.5 Shots On Goal
EDM @ ANA: A Connor McDavid Game
Three fun facts about Connor McDavid:
Connor McDavid does not have a point in the series. Two games, zero points.
Connor McDavid has gone without points in back-to-back games three times in his career in the playoffs since 2020.
In the three games that followed the empty back-to-backs, McDavid had 4, 3, and 3 points.
He’s been quiet, and there’s no data from the app to include in the newsletter for him today, but we thought those three fun facts were interesting enough to share.
MLB Batter vs Pitcher Matchups
Lefties vs Bello, lefties vs Cameron, and Josh Jung with a chance to jump on a struggling Luis Severino…
