16 Days Until The NFL Returns

MLB, WNBA Trends Inside

Author

Michael Mohorovich
August 20, 2024

19 Days Until the First NFL Sunday

The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens kick off the NFL season in 16 days (September 5th), followed by the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL International Series the next night in Sao Paulo, before that first wonderful Sunday just two days later. As we count down, our next NFL future will drop on Thursday, but this newsletter is still full of goodies: MLB and WNBA trends too take us until then. But first…

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We picked the MLB trends for this newsletter with two thoughts in mind: let’s highlight the projection model this week, and its top picks for strikeouts, total bases, and HRR (hits, runs, and RBIs).

Bailey Ober Over 4.5 Strikeouts

The projection model likes Twins pitcher Bailey Ober the most today, and we can understand why based on his recent play.

Bailey Ober is the favorite pitcher for the projection model today

Ober has gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 starts, and 65% of his starts this season.

Ober has crushed this line in recent starts

He doesn’t have an easy matchup, the Padres strikeout the least against right-handed pitchers this season, but they did strike out 5 times to Cal Quantrill on August 16th, so the line is in play against San Diego.

The Padres don’t strikeout often versus righties, but Ober does average 1 K per inning

Bobby Witt Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases

On the total bases dashboard, the projection model likes Bobby Witt Jr. the most today.

Witt Jr. gets a matchup against Tyler Anderson, who he has a short history with; racking up 12 plate appearances.

Witt has three total bases in 12 plate appearances against Anderson

Witt Jr has three singles and no extra-base hits against Anderson, but maybe he’ll have better luck against the Angels bullpen that has the second-highest ERA in all of baseball this season.

Everyone knows how good of a season Witt Jr. has had this year, and he hasn’t slowed down lately. He’s gone over this line in 6 of his last 10 games, totaling 35 bases over that stretch.

Witt’s last 10 games versus this line

Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

The projection model likes Holliday the most today against his HRR line, projecting him to rack up 3 hits, runs, and RBIs combined.

Holliday is our model’s favorite HRR pick today

Holliday’s first stint in the Majors was awful, but since being recalled on July 31st, Holliday has gone over this line in 14 of his 18 games.

Holliday has been slow over his last couple games, but the model still likes him today

He faces Jose Quintana, who has ever-so-slightly worse splits against left-handed hitters than he does against righties.

Lefties have hit Quintana to a .252 average, slightly better than righties

We picked our two WNBA trends the same way we picked the MLB trends, going with what our projection model likes the most. But only in one category: points.

Ariel Atkins Over 13.5 Points

The Washington Mystics have one bright spot: Ariel Atkins; and the projection model tends to agree.

The projection model likes Atkins the most versus her points line

Atkins has been over this line in 52% of her games this season, but that jumps up to 54% when you just look at her home games.

Atkins has gone over in 2 of her last 3 games, too.

She also faces a Seattle team that’s a middle-of-the-pack defensive squad; the Mystics number one weapon should get her looks.

NFL Futures

No NFL future trend today, our next one will come next Thursday. Check out our first two down below:

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Tuesday Recap

2-4 on Thursday. 140/268 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. Holding steady at a 52% hit rate.

MLB Recap

Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Semien has 2 hits and a run.

Michael Harris II Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ Harris II had a hit, that was it. Braves were shut out, which made this so much more unlikely.

Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts ❌ Fried had 5. Tough.

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs ❌ Devers went 0-4 with 3 K’s in a 15-1 loss. Brutal.

WNBA Recap

Brittney Griner Over 6.5 Rebounds ✅ Griner had 9 boards.

Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 Assists ❌ Stewart only had 2 assists. Tough.

NFL Futures

From Our July 18th Newsletter: Tyreek Hill Over 1375.7 Receiving Yards ⁉️ To be determined

From Our August 13th Newsletter: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns ⁉️ To be determined