The Hottest Bats in Baseball

Author

Michael Mohorovich
August 13, 2024

In partnership with

Hottest Bats and Big Arms

We focused this newsletter on hot bats and arms with solid matchups. I know, I know, it sounds simple. But there are some players in baseball right now who are on legacy runs, and we’re hoping to take advantage. We’re also giving you our second NFL Futures trend of the season (the first came on July 18th). One of our key partners on X, @KyleJustBets, is also here with some trends for Tuesday’s slate. He’s batting lead-off, but first…

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Kyle, take us away.

Kutter Crawford Over 17.5 Outs

Love this bounce-back spot for Kutter tonight at home, where he’s truly his best self.

Crawford has been solid at home this season

Crawford has been in a bit of a slump since the All-Star Break going under this number in 4 straight starts, but against some of the league’s toughest matchups like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Royals. 3 out of this 4 games were on the road. He’s a much better player at home, at least this season where he’s over in 7/L10 games overall.

And tonight he gets a slumping Rangers team who have the 6th worst OBP vs RHP over the last 15 days, and the 10th worst wRC+.

The Rangers’ wRC+ and OBP over their last 15 games is encouraging

Also good news for this trend; last night’s game between these two teams went to extra innings, so the Red Sox bullpen isn’t in the best shape despite Brayan Bello pushing 6 IP.

The Rangers, well, suck, against Crawford’s pitch mix. He primarily throws the 4-seam, cutter, and sweeper which Texas posts just a .194 BA against over the last month vs RHP. Recent history is on the side of the over as well; 7 out of the last 11 starting RHP to face the Rangers on home turf are also over this number.

And my favorite part is the fact that the Rangers see the 8th least amount of pitches per plate appearance in the MLB. Meaning, if Crawford can keep his pitch count low enough tonight, he should cruise through 6 innings. When he’s at or below 17 pitchers per inning, he’s over this number of outs in 85% of his last 20 games. That’s a hit rate I can get behind.

Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts

A lefty vs the Rockies…if you don’t know about this trend, now you do. The Rockies have been a K-target team most of the season, but even more so since the trade deadline.

Since July 1st this team has been posting the second-highest K% to LHP in the MLB. And on the road against lefties, they lead the league in K% by a HUGE margin (37.9%, the next closest is 32.6%).

The Rockies are dreadful against lefties

9 out of the last 12 starting LHP to face the Rockies are over this number, including 3 out of the last 4 to face them on home turf.

Rodriguez also primarily throws the 4-seam, change-up, and cutter which Colorado has struggled against over the last month, posting the 2nd highest K% to that pitch mix vs LHP, along with the 7th-lowest batting average.

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Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Corey Seager, Jake McCarthy, Yusei Kikuchi. Those 5 players round out the MLB portion of the newsletter before we get into our next NFL future.

Alex Bregman & Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases

We couldn’t pick between these two, so we’re highlighting them both. Bregman and Alvarez have been scorching hot over their last 10 games.

Alvarez’s last 10 games

Bregman’s last 10 games

Bregman has 27 bases over his last 7 games, with extra-base hits in all 7. And Alvarez has 28 bases over his last 6 games. Can these two keep their outrageous runs going against Shane Baz? Both lefty and righty opposing batters have hit Baz to averages over .260, and Baz has allowed 6 or more hits in 4 of his 6 starts this season.

Baz’s lefty/righty splits: .278 average, .262 average. Bregman (righty), Alvarez (lefty).

Yusei Kikuchi Over 6.5 Strikeouts

The Houston Astros have unlocked another level of Yusei Kikuchi. The trick was simple; throw your slider a lot more.

Source: Baseball Savant

He’s throwing the slider a lot more as an Astro than he did as a Blue Jay, and so far it’s working. He has 19 (!) strikeouts in his first two starts with Houston, and one of those two starts was against Tampa Bay, who he plays tonight.

Kikuchi’s last two starts, his first two with Houston, have been insane

The Rays have struck out the third most to lefties over the last 15 games, it hasn’t been pretty.

The Rays also have the 5th highest strikeout rate against lefties this season overall

Jake McCarthy Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Jake McCarthy has come alive in his last 5 games, going over in 4 of his last 5 games with 27 combined hits, runs, and RBIs.

McCarthy’s last 5 games

McCarthy has found more success against lefties; he has a .369 average against southpaws and a .278 average against righties. He gets lefty Austin Gomber, who he’s only faced twice.

McCarthy has a single and an RBI against Gomber

Corey Seager Over 0.5 RBIs

Seager has been an RBI machine in his last 10 games.

Seager’s last 10 games

And his history against Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford is encouraging.

Seager has 2 singles, 2 home runs, and 2 RBIs against Crawford in 9 PA’s

NFL Futures

We’re bringing you our second NFL Futures trend today, with three more to come after this.

Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns

Dell had 7 touchdowns as a rookie, and that was with an injury that cut his season short in December.

Dell played just 11 games in his rookie season, and still had 7 TD’s

Yes, Stefon Diggs is there. But I think that makes this more attractive. Having a receiver of Diggs’s quality on the opposite side of Dell means that he may get more open looks. And the connection between Dell and CJ Stroud looks as good as ever in the preseason.

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Tuesday Recap

2-2 Last Tuesday. 134/255 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 52% hit rate.

MLB Recap

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Vladdy had a hit and a run to turn this one green.

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ Henderson went 0/4 with 3 K’s.

Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ This game was postponed, but the next day Marte came through.

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ Ohtani went 0/4. Ha.

NFL Futures Recap

From Our July 18th Newsletter: Tyreek Hill Over 1375.7 Receiving Yards ⁉️ To be determined

From Our August 13th Newsletter: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns ⁉️ To be determined