Dropping Another NFL Future

Author

Michael Mohorovich
August 22, 2024

In partnership with

Editors Note: Some betting trends in this newsletter are for the early MLB games starting at 1 PM

The NFL is Just Two Weeks Away

Are you excited for the NFL to return?

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Two weeks from today, the Chiefs and Ravens will kick off the NFL season. To celebrate the countdown, we're releasing the third of our five NFL futures today, along with our regular MLB trends. But first! ⬇️

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When we put together today’s newsletter, the excitement was real. Aaron Judge, Nolan Arenado, Marcell Ozuna, and Jackson Merrill are in our hitters category - you can find the pitcher trends below.

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (1 PM)

Judge, and teammate Juan Soto, have been on a legacy run lately. But we’re choosing the righty over the lefty here.

Williams has been slightly worse against righties than he has against lefties:

Lefties have hit Williams to a .261 average, righties have that beaten at .275

That, combined with how often he throws his fastball, makes us confident in this trend. You can see how often he throws the fastball down below; Judge has a .397 average against fastball this year versus .269 against the breaking ball and .226 versus offspeed pitches.

Williams throws his fastball over 55% of the time. Source: Baseball Savant

Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (2:15 PM)

This trend has good historical data and good recent data. A good old 1-2 punch.

Arenado has surpassed this mark in 6 of his last 10 games and is coming off a 9 HRR performance in his most recent outing. He’s also set to face Freddy Peralta, against whom he has a .323 average and 10 RBIs over 34 plate appearances.

Arenado has experience against Peralta and solid recent data

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Get these seasonal meals while you can!

Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (7:08 PM)

Though it's a small sample size, Marcell Ozuna has recorded a single and a double in 5 plate appearances against Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez. This matchup plays to Ozuna's strengths, as he hits lefties better than righties, while Sanchez has struggled more against right-handed hitters.

A lot of data leans toward this trend turning green

Ozuna’s also been on a tear lately:

  • Over in 12 of his last 20

  • Over in 10 of his last 15

  • Over in 4 of his last 5

  • 17 total bases in his last 5

Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (9:40)

It looked like Paul Skenes had the NL Rookie of the Year wrapped up, but Jackson Merrill has made every one pause.

Merrill had a slow July (still hitting .260) but his start to August has put everyone on notice.

Merrill was hitting .280 in the first two months, but in June and August he turned it up

And his recent play against this line has been surreal: over in 5 straight, over in 7 of his last 10, and over in 12 of his last 15.

MLB Pitcher Trends

We only have two trends for our pitcher section, and they’re from the same game.

Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts/Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (6:40 PM)

Yes, Paul Skenes has gone under this line in 3 of his last 4 games, but he’s been over this line 63% of the time this season. Skenes is also in the 85th percentile for strikeouts amongst eligible pitchers this season, and he has a great matchup today against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds strikeout the 4th most in all of baseball against righties this season

The Reds have 7 players with strikeout rates above 20%, and 3 players have strikeout rates above 24%.

Can Skenes take advantage of his matchup today?

On the bump for the Reds is Nick Lodolo, who isn’t a marquee strikeout guy, but the Pirates are enough of a strikeout team that we still like this matchup.

Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts

The Pirates strikeout the most against lefties over their last 15 games, and have a collective strikeout rate of over 25%.

The Pirates strikeout the 4th most in 2024, and the 3rd most over their last 30

As for Lodolo, his home and away splits are staggeringly different.

67% hit rate on the road

Just 45% at home

NFL Futures

Our third of five NFL futures drops today, you can check out our first two down below!

Kirk Cousins Over 3950.5 Passing Yards

If Cousins stays healthy, and gels quickly with his new weapons, this should be sweat-free.

Cousins has been over in 3 of his last 5 seasons, and was injured much of last season

Yes, he’s no longer throwing to Justin Jefferson, but he has Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Darnell Mooney to throw to. An added plus? According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule by a mile this season.

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Tuesday Recap

3-1 on Tuesday, 143/272 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. Holding steady at a 52% hit rate.

MLB Recap

Bailey Ober 4.5 Strikeouts ✅ Ober had 5 K’s.

Bobby Witt Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases ✅ Witt had 5 bases with two doubles. Easy over.

Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ Ryan Mountcastle and Jackson Holliday were the only two Orioles without a hit in a 9-5 win Tuesday. You hate to see it.

WNBA Recap

Ariel Atkins Over 13.5 Points ✅ Atkins had 25. No sweat.