NFL Just Three Weeks Away

WNBA Returns

Author

Michael Mohorovich
August 15, 2024

21 Days Until the NFL, but the WNBA is Back! And of course, MLB Trends Below

Roughly three weeks and 7 hours after this newsletter hits your inbox, we’ll be sitting down to watch week 1 of the NFL; Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the Ravens are at Arrowhead to face Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift. But for now, it’s all about Major League Baseball and the return of the WNBA tonight. Let’s get into some trends, but first…

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We wanted to find trends with great data, as usual, but also we wanted this newsletter’s trends to have good narratives…and so they do! Below you’ll find a great head-to-head matchup for a batter who might be getting hot, a triumphant return from injury, a pitcher looking to make it 4 in a row, and a superstar searching for a home run in a head-to-head matchup that he’s dominated. The narratives have good data, too - we promise.

Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Marcus Semien has gone over this line in 52% of his games this season, but more importantly, he’s gone over in two of his last three and has hits in all three. Can Semien stay hot against a pitcher he has outstanding numbers against?

Is Semien about to start a hot streak?

And seriously, he’s crushed Bailey Ober in this matchup.

Semien has 5 hits in 10 plate appearances against Ober, with two home runs

Michael Harris II Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Harris returned from injury Wednesday night with a bang 🤯

A grand slam in your first at-bat of the IL is bonkers, and he’s in a good spot to build on his last three games tonight.

Harris has a solid history against Giants starter Logan Webb

Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Max Fried has gone over this line in three straight starts, and the San Francisco Giants lineup he faces today is a lineup that he’s mowed down throughout his career.

Freid has strikeout rates of 33% or higher against 5 of the Giants batters

Against left-handed pitchers in general, the Giants are a top ten strikeout team over their last 15 last 30 games, and on the season as a whole.

The Giants have a team strikeout rate of nearly 24% against lefties this season

And like we said, he’s looking for a 4th win in a row.

Fried has gone over this line in three straight starts

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs

This is only our third attempt at a home run call. We’re 0-2, which is not great, but can we get our first W here?

Devers is in the midst of an ugly homerun drought, by his standards

Devers does not have a home run in his last 10 games. His longest drought this season? 11. The reason we’re highlighting him is twofold; he has two home runs in 13 plate appearances against Orioles starter Zach Eflin.

He also has two triples - look at that slugging percentage.

The other reason is the drought - like we said, Devers has gone 11 games without a home run. He'll tie his season-long drought if he doesn't get one today. The Red Sox are on the road, and Devers has 11 career home runs at Camden Yards (Tied for 3rd most of any ballpark in his career).

Devers spray chart: he hits most of his home runs to right field, where Camden Yards plays well

The WNBA is back, and we were ready.

Let’s get into it.

Brittney Griner Over 6.5 Rebounds

Griner, on the road, against one of the worst rebounding teams in the WNBA? Sign us up.

Griner has cooked this line on the road

Combine her 88% hit rate on the road with the fact that the Sky are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league this season, and we have a trend worth highlighting.

The Sky allow 36.14 rebounds per game, third most in the WNBA

Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 Assists

No team in the WNBA gives up more assists than the LA Sparks.

The Sparks give up 21.5 assists per game, the highest in the WNBA

Stewart’s home and away splits for her assists jump off the screen. Stewart has a 58% hit rate on the road and a 46% hit rate at home. The Liberty play in LA tonight.

Stewart at home

Stewart on the road

NFL Futures

No NFL future trend today, our next one will come next Thursday. Check out our first two down below:

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Tuesday Recap

2-5 on Tuesday, ugly stuff. 138/262 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 52% hit rate.

Kutter Crawford Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs ❌ Kutter had a perfect game going into the 6th, and then disinagrated.

Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts ❌ He had 5. Tough.

Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases ✅ A three hit game for Bregman gave us our first win of the night.

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ Alvarez went 0-3 with a walk, not his night.

Yusei Kikuchi Over 6.5 Strikeouts ❌ He had 5. Tough.

Jake McCarthy Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ 3 hits, 2 RBIs - McCarthy is on fire right now.

Corey Seager Over 0.5 RBIs ❌ Seager had a run himself, but no RBI.

NFL Futures Recap

From Our July 18th Newsletter: Tyreek Hill Over 1375.7 Receiving Yards ⁉️ To be determined

From Our August 13th Newsletter: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns ⁉️ To be determined