The Curious Case of Jalen Green

In Tuesday’s newsletter, we focused on Donovan Mitchell and how he had a bizarre 4-game stretch averaging just 15 points, compared to his 22.8 average this season. We concluded that he just wasn’t shooting enough, and if he put up 18 or more shots (his season average), he could turn things around. Well, Mitchell attempted 23 shots on Tuesday and put up 35 points. Today, we’re running back the Props.Cash Investigative Team and our subject is Jalen Green.

From the start of the season to January 1st, Green averaged 19.4 points per game. In the Rockets’ six games since, he’s averaged 32 points per game. Why the sudden change? What has changed for Green?

Let’s investigate.

The Last 6 Games for Green

This is how Green’s play over his last 6 games breaks down:

• 32.0 points per game,

• 11 made field goals per game, 20.3 field goal attempts, 54.1% field goal percentage

• 5.3 3-pointers per game, 10.3 3-point attempts per game, 50% from three

• 4.4 free throws per game, 4.5 free throw attempts per game, 96% from the line

• 3.8 rebounds per game

• 3.2 assists per game

The only reason that Green has seen such an uptick in his points per game over his last 6 games is the same thing we were advocating for Mitchell to do more of on Tuesday - SHOOT THE BALL!

Green from Three

This season overall, Green has averaged 35.4% from three, and from the start of the season to January 1st, he was averaging 31% from three. The jump to 50% is the biggest factor in his hot streak, as seen in his 3-pointers made graph on Props.Cash.

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He has 4 or more threes in 6 straight games and had 10 games with 4 or more threes all season long before this recent stretch. What can we attribute this surge in threes to? Attempts. He’s shooting 10.6 threes per game over this stretch, three more threes per game than his average from the start of the season to January 1st (7.6 attempts per game)

Green Is Shooting The Ball From Everywhere

It’s not just from deep that Green is throwing up more shots - his overall field goal attempts this season is 17.2, but let’s break that down pre and post-January 1st.

• He was averaging 16.6 field goal attempts from the start of the year to January 1st

• He’s averaged 20.3 field goal attempts over his last 6 games

So what’s changed for Green? There’s only been one major change in the Rockets lineup: Jabari Smith Jr was hurt on January 3rd in practice and hasn’t played in any of the 6 games for the Rockets during Green’s streak. Smith Jr. remains out tonight.

Can He Keep It Up Tonight?!

Smith Jr gets a matchup on the road vs Sacramento tonight, who don’t give up a lot of rebounds to shooting guards, are middle of the pack when it comes to assists, but do have a glaring issue with the three-point shot vs the position.

They allow, on average, 3.58 threes per game to shooting guards, 20th in the NBA. But their 3-point shooting percentage allowed to SG’s is 33.09, 4th worst in the NBA. Can Green, who is scorching hot from beyond the arc, continue that against a team that gives up good looks to his position? In the past, he has.

Green has 12 games against the Kings registered on Props.Cash, dating back to 2022. In 6 of those 12 games, he had 5 threes or more.

And it’s worth pointing out that the Kings have given up multiple 4 or more three games to multiple shooting guards over their last 10, including AJ Green, Lonzo Ball, Tyler Herro, and Malik Beasley.

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See you Saturday morning for our weekly NFL touchdown analysis!