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Below are the MLB trends you’ve come to love, some WNBA trends, and an update on our NFL futures. But first…

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MLB Pitcher Trends

Both pitcher betting trends we suggested last Thursday came through. Can we stay hot?

Justin Steele Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Steele has hit this in 57% of his games this season, and he’s been over in 3 of his last 5. That data is encouraging, but even more so is his head-to-head data against this Pittsburgh lineup. 7 batters in the Pirates lineup have a strikeout rate of or above 20% against Steele.

Another data set that supports this trend is Steele's home and away splits. The Cubs are on the road, where Steele has a better hit rate than at home.

Brant Hurter Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Hurter has been over 3 of his first 4 career starts, not bad for a former 7th-round pick who had a 5.80 ERA in AAA this season.

He gets a juicy matchup against the Angels, who have struck out the most against lefties over the last 15 games. What do we need out of him to cash? Well through his first 17 innings, he has 17 strikeouts. 1 strikeout per inning so far; so 4 innings, 4 Ks?

Mitch Spence Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Spence started the year as a long reliever, so his hit rates are a little skewed. He’s only hit this line 32% of the time this season. But stick with us; when he pitches 5 innings or more this season, he has a hit rate of 46%. We know, not that much better. But over his last 11 starts pitching 5 or more innings, he has a hit rate of 66%. Most recently, he racked up 10 strikeouts against the Rays.

And he gets a fantastic matchup against the Reds; they have the 4th highest strikeout rate over his last 15 games, and the 3rd highest strikeout rate this season.

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MLB Batter Trends

Two batters make their newsletter debut, and one of our frequent flyers is back.

Connor Joe Over 0.5 Singles

Yes, Joe doesn’t have a single in his last 15 games, but if you remove those games, his hit rate jumps from 36% to 41%. And he could be ready for a bit of a breakout; after smacking just 2 hits over 13 games, Joe has hits in back-to-back games. Another reason we’re hoping for a breakout? His juicy historical matchup against Cubs starter Justin Steele.

Joe has 6 singles in 15 plate appearances against Steele and rocks a .538 average lifetime versus the lefty. Lefty/righty splits also play positively for us here; Joe has better numbers vs lefties than he does righties, and Steele has worse numbers against righties than he does against lefties.

Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 Singles

There are only two pieces of data you need for this one:

• He has a single in 57% of his games this season.

• He has 4 singles in 7 plate appearances against Gavin Williams.

Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

The theme of most of our trends today seems to be matchup-based, apparently. In 27 plate appearances against Cole Irvin, Ohtani has a .308 average and 2 home runs.

Ohtani also has a 62% hit rate this season against this line.

2.5 hits, runs and RBIs could also be in play considering Ohtani’s matchup. He’s hit the over on 2.5 hits, runs, and RBIs 47% of the ties this season, and 50% over his last 10 games.

WNBA Trends

There’s only one game on the WNBA docket tonight, and we had one trend jump out to us.

Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 Points

Plum has been over this line in 8 of her last 11 games versus the Wings, and we like that to continue considering they have a bottom 4 defense in the league this season.

And if you believe in niche data trends, Plum is a menace on Tuesdays.

She’s been over this line in 60% of her starts on Tuesdays this season, averaging 20 points per game.

NFL Futures

Our third of five NFL futures dropped last Thursday, you can check out all three we’ve revealed so far down below. Our next is coming this Thursday 👀

• July 18th Future: Tyreek Hill over 1375.5 Receiving Yards

• August 13th Future: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns

• August 22nd Future: Kirk Cousins Over 3950.5 Passing Yards

• Thursday, August 29th Partner Future

• Thursday, September 5th Running Back Future

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Tuesday Recap

4-2 on Tuesday, 147/278 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. Up to a 53% hit rate from 52%.

MLB Batter Recap

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ 1 hit, 1 RBI and 2 Runs. Easy.

Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ A hit and an RBI to cash us.

Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ Singled in the first, didn’t do anything else.

Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ Merrill went 0/4. Brutal.

MLB Pitcher Recap

Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts ✅ Skenes had 9 K’s.

Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts ✅ Lodolo had 9 K’s.