THE NFL IS HERE!

New NFL Tutorial, NFL trends and MLB trends inside.

Author

Michael Mohorovich
September 05, 2024

The NFL is Back!

207 days after the Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Fransico 49ers in the Super Bowl, those same Chiefs start their title defense at home against the Baltimore Ravens. Before we get into some trends, two things you should be aware of:

  • We’re going to have another newsletter tomorrow. A special edition with all of our week one trends, this newsletter will only have Thursday Night Football trends.

This route-running tree displays Mahomes passing attempts

This is the first time we’ve been able to type “NFL trends” in 207 days. Let’s go! Again, we only have trends for tonight’s game in here. We have a newsletter tomorrow to give you all of the week one finds from Props.Cash.

Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 Rushing Yards

Mahomes in primetime last season did not miss this line. 6 for 6.

Mahomes didn’t miss in primetime last season

He also went over 82% of the time at home.

Mahomes was money at home

100% hit rate, 82% hit rate…what more could you ask for in a week one trend?

Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions

Kelce went over this line in 7 of his 10 home games last season, but more important is the data we found on Kelce’s route running tree and the Ravens’ defensive tree.

Kelce’s completion percentage

Ravens D completion rates

Most of Kelce’s completions come when he’s running slants, flats, curls, and out routes. The Ravens give up the highest completion percentages to those areas of the field. He’s also over this line in back-to-back games against the Ravens, including last January when he had 11 grabs.

Kelce’s head-to-head against the Ravens

Isaiah Likely Over 16.5 Receiving Yards

Isaiah Likely came on in the back half of the season last year, going over this line in 7 of his last 8 games. We know Mark Andrews is back, but in two tight end sets Likely should get some looks.

And his route running tree gives us another reason to like him. 20% of Likely’s routes in 2023 were flat routes, and the Chiefs defense gave up an 80% completion rate in those routes. His second favorite route is the curl route, where the Chiefs gave up 9.1 yards per catch.

Likely’s comp. %’s

Chiefs D comp. %

The Chiefs D YPC

That does it for Thursday night football for us, but check out our last NFL future down below!

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NFL Futures

Our third of five NFL futures drops today, you can check out our first two down below!

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 835.5 Rushing Yards

We know, David Montgomery is there. But Lions General Manager Brad Holmes said in May that they expect Gibbs to have more of a load this season. Gibbs is also running behind the number one offensive line in football according to PFF, and this line is a full 120 yards under what he ran last year. Health is the only concern here, with Gibbs questionable for week one, but if he stays healthy, this should be a no-sweat future.

Gibbs had 945 yards last year, easily going over this line

Instead of the typical MLB trends, we wanted to show off one of our partners, and the great research he does.

WallaBets Hot Bats

One of our X partners, WallaBets, does a great hot-bats write-up every day of the MLB season. Check out today’s below:

You can use this to find some trends you may like today. The two that popped out the most to us were Royce Lewis and Jackson Merrill.

Haven’t tried props.cash yet? Use code “NEWSLETTER” for 25% off your first month! Sign up here.

Tuesday Recap

5-2 on Tuesday, 160/301 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. Up from 52 to a 53% hit rate.

MLB Recap

Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Vlad had 8! 4 hits, 2 runs, 2 RBIs

Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Butler had 3, 1 of each

Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ He went 0-4.

O’Neil Cruz Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ❌ He had a run, but that was it.

Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts ✅ Bassitt had 7!

WNBA Recap

Brionna Jones Over 12.5 Points ✅ Jones dropped 21

Tina Charles Over 9.5 Rebounds ✅ Charles grabbed 12 boards

NFL Futures

Thursday, September 5th Running Back Future