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NFL TRENDS: The Under Was the Story In Week One
MLB, WNBA Trends Inside
Michael Mohorovich
September 10, 2024
NFL Week One In The Books, How Did the Over Do?
One of the new initiatives of the Tuesday newsletter is to recap how often different NFL positions hit their line, versus the average line for the starter in that position. Here’s what we mean: most quarterbacks’ passing lines are above 200, most starting running backs’ lines are above 39.5, and most starting receivers’ lines are 49.5 or higher. So how many quarterbacks, receivers, and running backs with lines above those numbers went over?
Position and Line | # of Players Who Qualified | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
QB’s, 200.5 Passing Yards or Higher | 29 | 8 | 21 |
RB’s, 39.5 Rushing Yards or Higher | 31 | 12 | 19 |
WR’s, 49.5 Receiving Yards or Highter | 30 | 9 | 21 |
TE’s, 29.5 Receiving Yards or Higher | 12 | 2 | 10 |
Under, under, under! The under did well in week one, hitting against these specific lines at 72% for quarterbacks, 61% for running backs, 70% for wide receivers, and 83% for tight ends. It’s only week one, but this will be an interesting benchmark to follow through the season.
MLB Trends
Three MLB trends today: two hot hitters, a juicy strikeout prop.
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Ozuna gets a juicy matchup versus Mackenzie Gore, who’s been mashed by lefties to the tune of a .326 average, and it’s a matchup that Ozuna has dominated.
Ozuna has .400 average and .600 slugging percentage vs Gore
In their matchup, Ozuna has 5 singles, a home run, and 4 RBIs, and he has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games against the Nationals. Gore has also been hit hard this season by both sides of the plate (.276 average vs righties, .298 average vs lefties).
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
Gunnar has been over this line in 7 of his last 10 games, with 28 combined hits, runs, and RBIs in that span.
Gunnar has been red hot over his last 5 games
Admittedly, he gets a tough matchup versus Kutter Crawford. Lefties have just a .201 average versus Crawford. But if he can’t manage anything against Crawford, we like his chances against the Red Sox bullpen. Boston’s bullpen has the 5th highest ERA this season in baseball and has given up the 3rd most hits.
Spencer Arrighetti Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Arrighetti is in the 82nd strikeout percentile and has been over this line in 4 of his last 5 home starts.
Arrighetti has been dynamite at home over his last 5 starts
He gets a wonderful matchup versus the Athletics, who have struck out the 5th most in baseball over their last 15 games and are expected to have 5 batters with strikeout rates over 20% vs Arrighetti's lifetime in their lineup. Even worse than that though, 7 batters have strikeout rates above 22% vs righties in their careers.
K rates above 22%: Butler, Rooker, Langeliers, Brown, Cameron, Gelof and Schuemann
WNBA Trends
Two trends, two nights, and two solid matchups.
Marina Mabrey Over 14.5 Points+Assists
Mabrey has been over this line in 7 of her last 10 games, and her opponent, the LA Sparkes, allows the most assists in the league. Something she’s been able to take advantage of in the past, going over this line in 8 of her last 11 against the Sparkes.
Mabrey has a 71% hit rate this season
The Sparkes are also the second-worst rebounding team in the league. Two more reasons we like this: Smith has 15 or more points in 6 of her last 10 and 4 or more assists in 6 of her last 10 games.
NaLyssa Smith Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds (Wednesday)
NaLyssa Smith has gone over this line in 64% of her games this season, and she's over in 4 of her last 6. The Aces are also the worst rebounding team in the league, and she’s also taken advantage of that; she has an outstanding history versus the Aces, going over in 7 of her last 8 games against them.
A lot of Green for Smith vs this line
Smith’s recent play is encouraging too, she has 6 or more rebounds in 7 of her last 10 and 10 or more points in 4 of her last 6 games.
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Tuesday Recap
6-7 on Tuesday, 167/317 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 53% hit rate.
NFL Recap
Jordan Love Over 256.5 Passing Yards ✅ He came through 260
Chuba Hubbard Over 56.5 Rushing Yards ❌ Hubbard only had 14.
DeAndre Swift Over 43.5 Rushing Yards ❌ Swift only managed 30.
CJ Stround Under 36.5 Passing Attempts ✅ Stroud only attempted 32.
Michael Wilson Over 29.5 Receiving Yards ❌ Wilson only had 5, but had a TD.
Joe Burrow Over 23.5 Passing Completions ❌ Burrow had 21.
Tyreek Hill Over 97.5 Receiving Yards ✅ Hill had 130.
Aaron Jones Over 54.5 Rushing Yards ✅ Jones crushed this line with 94 yards.
Zach Charbonnet Over 25 Rushing + Receiving Yards ✅ Charbonnet had 12 rushing yards, and 29 receiving yards for 42 total.
Zamir White Over 55.5 Rushing Yards ❌ White had 44 yards.
Brandon Aubrey Over 1.5 Field Goals ✅ Aubrey had 3.
Brian Robinson Over 42.5 Rushing Yards ❌ Robinson was close, he had 40 yards.
Amon Ra St-Brown Over 84.5 Receiving Yards ❌ Brown had an uncharacteristically bad game and finished with just 13 yards.