NFL WEEK 2: Can the Under Strike Again?

Inside The Newsletter: NFL Trends, Barrel % in Major League Baseball

Author

Michael Mohorovich
September 12, 2024

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Editor note: moving forward, we’ll be adding a third newsletter, just for the duration of the NFL season. On Fridays expect an NFL-only newsletter in your inboxes!

NFL Week 2

The story of week one in the NFL was the under:

  • 21 of 29 quarterbacks with a passing yard line of 200.5 or greater went under

  • 19 of 31 running backs with a rushing yard line of 39.5 or higher went under

  • 21 of 30 wide receivers with a receiving yard line of 49.5 or higher went under

  • 10 of 12 tight ends with a receiving yard line of 29.5 or higher went under.

Will it continue in week 2? We have trends for Thursday Night Football below.

The Thursday nighter should be good: Bills and Dolphins to kick off week two, two quarterbacks that can put points on the board, but are also prone to interceptions. Let’s get into it.

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions

Allen, in primetime, loves throwing the ball to the other team.

Allen has 11 interceptions over his last 7 primetime games

And his history against the Dolphins ain’t great either; he’s thrown 4 picks in his previous 3 games against Miami.

Allen threw two picks the last time he played Miami

As everyone knows, he also turns the ball over at an alarming rate.

Josh Allen Over 245.5 Passing Yards

Allen has his drawbacks, but he’s also one of the best quarterbacks in the league for a reason. And we think, turnovers aside, he’ll still show that tonight. Against the Dolphins, Allen straight-up balls out. He’s been over this passing yards line in 6 of his past 7 games against Miami.

Josh Allen’s history against Miami

Allen just narrowly missed this line in the season opener, throwing for 232 yards against the Cardinals, but Allen’s history against the Dolphins is encouraging enough for us to highlight this trend.

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Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions

Both QBs to throw picks? Why not. The data on both sides is encouraging.

Tua has struggled with turnovers in his last 5 primetime games

Tua on primetime, just like Allen, has struggled with turnovers. He has 5 interceptions over his last 5 primetime games, including two interceptions to the Bills last January. Additionally, Tua has thrown 9 interceptions over his last 10 games against AFC opponents.

Tua vs the AFC

James Cook Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts

Cook doesn’t have good head-to-head data against Miami (0 for 5), but his last 10 games overall are very encouraging. He’s been over this line in 8 of his last 10 games, eclipsing 16 or more attempts in all the games he went over that line.

Cook has taken over the Bills backfield

Jacksonville in week one against Miami went with a running back by committee approach; Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne had 12 attempts each, and Cook is far and away RB1 in Buffalo. He had 19 attempts in week one against Arizona and should follow that up with a similar offer in week 2.

One of our key partners, @WallaBets, does a great report on the best barrel% of the night, you can find that here. Don’t know what barrel % means? Check out this great explainer. We’re going to highlight two batters from this report!

Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases

Carpenter gets Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, who’s been smacked around by lefties (.290 average) and Carpenter’s splits against righties and lefties jump off the page, too.

Carpenter has a .111 average versus lefties, but a .318 average vs righties

Carpenter has also been over this line in 3 of his last 4 games, with 12 total bases.

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases

Air Yordan gets to face Oakland’s Mitch Spence, who has a barrel % of 7.5%, and has allowed lefties to hit him to a tune of a .274 against (compared to .266 average for righties). Alvarez has also gone over this line in back-to-back games and in 4 of his last 5.

Could Alvarez be headed for a hot streak? We hope so

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Tuesday Recap

4-1 on Tuesday! 171/322 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 53% hit rate.

MLB Recap

Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Ozuna had 2 runs and a hit.

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs ✅ Henderson had 2 runs and a hit.

Spencer Arrighetti Over 6.5 K’s ✅ Arrighetti came through with 7 K’s.

WNBA Recap

Marina Mabrey Over 14.5 Points+Assists ✅ Mabrey smoked this line with 26 points and 4 assists.

NaLyssa Smith Over 15.5 Points+Rebounds ❌ So close to a sweep, Smith had 15 points and rebounds.

NFL Futures