Under! Go Under!

Unders dominated in week one…

• 21 of 29 quarterbacks with a passing yard line of 200.5 or greater went under

• 19 of 31 running backs with a rushing yard line of 39.5 or higher went under

• 21 of 30 wide receivers with a receiving yard line of 49.5 or higher went under

• 10 of 12 tight ends with a receiving yard line of 29.5 or higher went under.

So, let’s find more unders for Sunday and Monday.

NFL Trends

Having said all that, we’re starting with an over 😂

CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions

CeeDee Lamb is too much of a wagon at home to be ignored.

He’s gone over this line in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 9.2 receptions a game over that span. Adam Thielen had 3 receptions on 4 targets and Xavier Legette had 4 receptions on 7 targets in week one against the Saints. If the Panthers’ offense can do that, Dak and CeeDee can connect for 7 catches.

Mark Andrews Under 39.5 Receiving Yards

If week one taught us one thing, Isaiah Likely is likely tight end one in Baltimore now, so there are a couple of reasons to like this trend:

• Likely had 9 catches on 12 targets for 111 yards and a TD, Andrews was targetted just twice, catching both for 14 yards.

• The Raiders gave up 135 yards on the ground in week one to JK Dobbins and another 26 yards to Gus Edwards. The Ravens are probably chomping at the bit to have Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, and Justice Hill run the ball at this Raiders D-Line. It could be a run-heavy approach.

• Neither tight end on the Chargers eclipsed this line against the Raiders last week.

Brian Robinson Over 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Robinson destroyed this line against a much better Tampa Bay defense last week, and now he gets an even better matchup against the Giants.

The Giants gave up 109 rushing and receiving yards to Aaron Jones and an additional 32 rushing and receiving yards to his backup, Ty Chandler. Robinson, and even his backup Austin Ekeler, should find success here.

Justin Herbert Under 29.5 Passing Attempts

Carolina is a tire fire all over the field, except for their pass defense.

And the Chargers had so much success on the ground last week (Dobbins had 135 yards, Edwards had 26 yards) that it’s safe to assume they’ll try to expose a Panthers rush defense that isn’t very good, taking away chances for Herbert to throw the ball.

Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts

Jordan Love isn’t playing this game. Matt LaFleur leaving the door open is just a strategy so the Colts have to gameplan for multiple possibilities. And with Malik Willis under center, they’re going to lean on Jacobs to ease the pressure of their temporary QB. He already had 16 attempts last game with Love healthy.

Added plus? The Colts’ rush defense gave up 159 yards to Joe Mixon last week, on 30 carries. The Packers will want to expose that again.

Sam Darnold Under 230.5 Passing Yards

Darnold had 208 yards against the Giants last week, and the 49ers held Aaron Rodgers to 167 yards last week. Why is this line at 230? Not sure, feels like a number too far out of reach for Darnold against this superior 49ers defense.

Trevor Lawrence Under 225.5 Passing Yards

Lawrence managed just 162 yards last week against the Dolphins, completing 12 passes on 21 attempts. If he managed just those numbers against Miami, 225 against the Browns seems out of reach, considering Cleveland had the second-best pass defense in the NFL last year. Our projection model likes the under too, projection Lawrence to finish with 203.7 yards.

Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD

Walker proved in week one that he’s still RB1 in Seattle, even with talented RB Zach Charbonnet waiting in the wings. He has a touchdown in 3 of his last 5 games, including the season opener last week, to go with 103 yards. He outcarried Charbonnet 20 to 8, but more importantly, he had both red zone carries last week.

Tony Pollard Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts

We were going to highlight this one, and then we saw our partner @KyleJustBets on X on it too, so we thought we’d just share his write-up. He got it at 12.5, but we still like 13.5. Check it out below ⬇️

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 79.5 Receiving Yards

St. Brown had a terrible start to his season, catching 3 of 6 targets for 13 yards. We like him to bounce back against the Buccs, an elite team at defending the rush, but a terrible team at defending the pass. They gave up the 3rd most passing yards last year, and Brown has two career games against them; one where he went over with 124 yards, and one where he just barely went under with 77 yards.

Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions

This line, considering what you’re about to read, is crazy. Kupp had a resurgence in week one:

21 targets, 12 catches, 110 yards. And now Puka Nacau is on the injured reserve, and the load will greaten for Kupp. He gets a great matchup against Arizona; he has a 148-yard game against them in his career, and they gave up big games to select wide receivers multiple times last year (Tank Dell: 149 yards, Amari Cooper: 139 yards, Kupp: 148 yards and Ja’Marr Chase: 192 yards).

Bo Nix Over 23.5 Rushing Yards

Bo Nix ran for 35 yards against Seattle, and we can attribute some of that to the fact that he was T2 in dropback pressures last week.

If the Seahawks can put this kind of pressure on Nix, imagine what this stout Steelers offense is going to do. Nix will be forced to run on some passing plays with the assumed pressure Pittsburgh can get on him.

Xavier Worthy Over 45.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Outside of the emergence of Isaiah Likely in week one, Xavier Worthy was the story of the week. He was dominant in his NFL debut, and the way that the Bengals’ defense played in week one against a sub-par Pats team, Worthy should be able to replicate his performance in week 2.

Caleb Williams Under 20.5 Pass Completions

Williams looked like a fish out of the water last week, completing 12 of 29 passes. In one week of work, against a team as good as Houston, Caleb is going to complete 21? We don’t think so. Anthony Richardson completed 19 passes last week, and last year the Texans were a middle-of-the-pack team in pass completions against.

Saquon Barkley Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts

Barkley rushed 24 times last week, on the way to a 109, 3 touchdown performance. After the success he had in week one, there’s no way the Eagles cut his carries by 7 or more this week, especially after the success the Steelers had running the ball against Atlanta last week.

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Tuesday Recap

1-5 on Tuesday, ugly stuff. We’ll bounce back. 172/328 since we started tracking the newsletter on April 16th. 52% hit rate.

NFL Recap

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions ❌ Allen didn’t throw a pick

Josh Allen Over 245.5 Passing Yards ❌ Allen only threw 139 yards

Tua Over 0.5 Interceptions ✅ Tua threw two picks before leaving with a scary injury

James Cook Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts ❌ Cook had a massive game, but only 11 carries.

MLB Recap

Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ Carpenter went 0/4

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases ❌ Alvarez went 0/4

NFL Futures

July 18th Future: Tyreek Hill over 1375.5 Receiving Yards

August 13th Future: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns

August 22nd Future: Kirk Cousins Over 3950.5 Passing Yards

August 29th Future from Markus_Markets: Josh Allen Over 485.5 Rushing Yards

September 5th Future: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 835.5 Rushing Yards