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WEEK ONE NFL SLATE TRENDS!

WEEK ONE NFL SLATE TRENDS!

One Trend for Each NFL Game

Michael Mohorovich
September 06, 2024

15 NFL Games, 15 NFL Trends

The NFL season opener came down to the final seconds and millimeters of the field last night, a perfect start to a new NFL season. Before we get into our 15 trends for 15 games, check out our tutorial for our new route running tree feature! Now for some trends…

A Trend For Every Game

There is no time to waste, one trend for every game below.

Eagles vs Packers, Friday 8:15: Jordan Love Over 256.5 Passing Yards

The first half of the season for Love and the Packers was completely different than the second half, and in the second half, Love eclipsed this line in 6 of his last 10 games (narrowly missing by one yard in another one of those games).

Jordan Love closed out the season strong

He gets to face the second-worst pass defense from a year ago, and although they’ve made improvements in the secondary and their D-Line, it may take a couple of weeks for those changes to start working on the field.

The Eagles’ passing D was 31st in the league last season

Saints vs Panthers, Sunday 1 PM: Chubba Hubbard Over 56.5 Rushing Yards

With rookie Jonathon Brooks sidelined, Hubbard will carry most of the load for an up-and-coming Panthers offense. He closed out last season going over this line in 4 of his last 6 games and opens this season up against a bottom-10 rushing defense from a year ago.

The Raiders rushing defense ranked 22nd in the NFL last season

Bears vs Titans, Sunday 1 PM: DeAndre Swift Over 43.5 Rushing Yards

There’s a new quarterback in Chicago, and the consensus is that’s he better than Justin Fields. But they’ll want to make week one as easy as possible for him, and that will include getting shiny new running back DeAndre Swift as involved as possible. Swift went over this line in 65% of his games last season on the Eagles.

Swift started out scorching hot, can he do it again this season?

Colts vs Texans, Sunday 1 PM: C.J. Stroud Under 36.5 Passing Yards

This line feels…off.

The under hit 65% of the time last year

As you can see, Stroud was only over this line in 29% of his starts last season, and the Colts rushing defense was 24th in the league last season so the Texans should get Joe Mixon involved to take away some attempts from Stroud.

Bills vs Cardinals, Sunday 1 PM: Michael Wilson Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

In an offense with Marvin Harrison Jr, Trey McBride, James Conner, and Kyler Murray’s legs, highlighting arguably the fifth option comes with risk. But Wilson should get some open looks with so many other weapons for the Bills to worry about, and he was over this line in 62% of his starts last season without a player of Kyler Murray’s pedigree under center.

Wilson is down the depth chart in this offense, but that may be a good thing for us

Bengals vs Patriots, Sunday 1 PM: Joe Burrow Over 23.5 Completions

The Patriots are going to be bad. Like, bad. And this is the first training camp that Joe Burrow has been 100% present, and 100% healthy. In a matchup this skewed, Burrow should go over a line that he didn’t miss a single time at home last season.

Joe Burrow did well at home against this line last year

Dolphins vs Jaguars, Sunday 1 PM: Tyreek Hill Over 97.5 Receiving Yards

The Jaguars had the 26th-ranked passing defense in the NFL last season and the only major change they made was adding Darnell Savage from Green Bay. A team with numbers as bad as the Jags, up against Hill, with no major improvements? Give me Hill and his 75% hit rate at home last season.

Tyreek was money at home

Vikings vs Giants, Sunday 1 PM: Aaron Jones Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

Aaron Jones is out to prove the critics wrong this season.

When it comes to #FantasyFootball, Aaron Jones says he cares deeply about those who draft him in fantasy football. He said if he let you down last year, draft him this season.
"Make sure you got me in your leagues."
@FOX9#Vikings
— Ahmad Hicks (@AhmadHicksTV)
10:29 PM • Sep 4, 2024

After a tough start to the year, he closed out the season with 5 straight 100-yard plus games last season, and even with Justin Jefferson on the field, the Vikings are expected to give Jones plenty of work with Sam Darnold under center.

Jones closed out the season strong

Falcons vs Steelers, Sunday 1 PM: Russell Wilson/Justin Fields Over 0.5 Interceptions

Wilson may not play with a calf injury, so if it’s Fields void it. On other road, against a young-eager-to-prove-themselves defense with a pretty good secondary, I think Wilson will make a mistake here.

Wilson threw a lot of balls to the wrong team on the road last season

Seahawks vs Broncos, Sunday 4 PM: Zach Charbonnet Over 36.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Charbonnet is headed into his second season, and he’s avoided the injury report this week so we can assume he’s ready to go for week one. Yes, he’s an RB2 behind Kenneth Walker but a high RB2, and against this line last year he went over in 57% of his games with Walker in the lineup. Not to mention the Seahawks play a work-in-progress Broncos defense with an elite secondary, but a not-so-worthy defensive line.

Charbonnet with Walker can still find his spots

Chargers vs Raiders, Sunday 4 PM: Zamir White Over 55.5 Rushing Yards

Josh Jacobs went down with an injury late last season, and the Raiders turned to White. What did he do? Cooked this line in 4 straight games, including two 100-yard performances. This Chargers D is going to be bad, and White should take advantage.

Zamir White is an underrated RB1 this year

Browns vs Cowboys, Sunday 4 PM: Brandon Aubrey Over 1.5 Field Goals

The Cowboys face the best pass defense from a year ago, and their running game has so many questions with Ezekial Elliot back in the fold. They’ll still be able to move the ball, but can they find the endzone against a D this good? We’re not so sure, but Aubrey should get his chances. He was over this line in 61% of his games last year.

The rare kicker trend!

Bucs vs Commanders, Sunday 4 PM: Brian Robinson Over 42.5 Rushing Yards

What is this line?

Even with Ekeler there, Brain Robinson is RB1

Robinson went over this line in 67% of his games last year, but more importantly in 75% of his home games. The Bucs D is good against the run, no doubt, but with Jayden Daniels under center, he should get plenty of touches.

Lions vs Rams, Sunday 8 PM: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 84.5 Receiving Yards

The sun god is a god, alright.

Brown at home, man.

He went over this line in 78% of his games last season at home, and in the only two he missed he had 77 yards, a piece. The Rams improved their D, but St. Brown should still go over this line as long as the Lions play like they did last year.